EPLSun 8:00 AM CTAmerican Express Stadium

Crystal Palace at Brighton & Hove Albion

TV · Peacock

Sun 8:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

68%

CRY 1.06–2.58 BHA

Crystal Palace

2-1-3

Form LWDWL · 9 PF · 12 PA

1.06

Projected

Brighton & Hove Albion

4-1-1

Form DWWWW · 18 PF · 5 PA

2.58

CRY 14%Draw 17%BHA 69%

Projected CRY 1.06–2.58 BHA · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BHA win

78%

80% (no-vig)

Total

3.64

3.5

Gap: -2 pts of win %, +0.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

CRY 1.06–2.58 BHA · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
BHA +0.7 off · CRY +0.0 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to BHA
Record
BHA 4-1-1 · CRY 2-1-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tyrick Mitchell
goals 2
Tyrick Mitchell
goalsleaders 2

Pascal Gross
goals 3
Pascal Gross
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CRY	BHA
Goal Difference	-3	13
Total Goals	9	18
Assists	6	12
Goals Against	12	5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

C. Kostoulas · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+115
G. Rutter · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+130
P. David · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+135
J. Mateta · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CRY
+225
F. Azeez · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+225
I. Osman · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+235
E. Nketiah · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CRY
+240
Y. Ayari · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+275
J. Hinshelwood · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+275
M. O'Riley · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+320
N. Oriola · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+320
M. De Cuyper · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BHA
+330