⌘K

NFLSun, 4:25 PM EDTAllegiant Stadium

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

10/18 - 4:25 PM EDT · CBS

Computer pick · Spread

LV +5.5

54%

BUF 29.33–24.48 LV

Data-Driven Pick · B. Bowers Under 79.5 rec yds

-110

Buffalo Bills

4-1 · W1

164 PF · 141 PA

29.33

Projected

Las Vegas Raiders

3-2 · L2 · computer pick

132 PF · 129 PA

24.48

BUF 64%LV 36%

Projected BUF 29.33–24.48 LV

DraftKingstap to log

ML

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

BUF 29.33–24.48 LV · Medium confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LV -2.7 vs BUF +4.8 · pred margin -4.8
Attack / defense
LV +2.0 off · BUF +5.1 off, shrunk 45%
Home field
+2.4 pts to LV
Record
LV 3-2 · BUF 4-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward BUF -5.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Josh Allen
Pass 91/138, 1249 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
James Cook III
Rush 95 CAR, 532 YDS, 5 TD
Dalton Kincaid
Rec 16 REC, 277 YDS, 1 TD

Kirk Cousins
Pass 112/172, 1269 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Ashton Jeanty
Rush 88 CAR, 291 YDS
Brock Bowers
Rec 24 REC, 312 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BUF	LV
Points Per Game	32.8	26.4
Total Yards	407.8	345.4
Yards Passing	249.8	263.4
Yards Rushing	158.0	82.0
Points Allowed Per Game	28.2	25.8
Yards Allowed	404.0	393.8
Pass Yards Allowed	295.8	253.2
Rush Yards Allowed	108.2	140.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

B. Bowers Under 78.5 rec yds

-11066%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

J. Allen anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
68%
J. Cook III anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
68%
D. Kincaid anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
68%
BUF anytime TD
Anytime TD · BUF
-110
64%
LV anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
64%
J. Cook III Over 1.5 rec
Receptions · BUF
-110
64%
J. Cook III Under 91.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · BUF
-110
63%
K. Cousins anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
61%
B. Bowers anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
61%
A. Jeanty anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
61%
K. Cousins Over 1.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · LV
-110
61%