Ligue 1Sun 10:15 AM CTStade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

AS Monaco at Lorient

TV · beIn Sports

Sun 10:15 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

MON 1.25–1.18 LOR

AS Monaco

4-2-0

Form DDWDW · 10 PF · 5 PA

1.25

Projected

Lorient

2-2-2

Form DLDWL · 6 PF · 6 PA

1.18

MON 38%Draw 27%LOR 35%

Projected MON 1.25–1.18 LOR · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LOR win

48%

37% (no-vig)

Total

2.43

2.5

Gap: +12 pts of win %, -0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MON 1.25–1.18 LOR · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
LOR -0.2 off · MON +0.2 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to LOR
Record
LOR 2-2-2 · MON 4-2-0

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Paris Brunner
goals 4
Paris Brunner
goalsleaders 4

Jean-Victor Makengo
goals 1
Jean-Victor Makengo
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MON	LOR
Goal Difference	5	0
Total Goals	10	6
Assists	9	5
Goals Against	5	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

F. Balogun · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+170
M. Abline · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+205
M. Biereth · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+215
A. Fati · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+225
M. Bamba · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LOR
+285
T. Minamino · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+330
A. Golovin · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+350
M. Detourbet · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+350
J. Makengo · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LOR
+360
M. Coulibaly · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+400
S. Faye · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LOR
+425
I. Jensen · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LOR
+500