NHLSun 7:00 PM CTScotiabank Saddledome
Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames
TV · ESPN+
Sun 7:00 PM CT
Computer pick · Total
Under 6.5
54%
CAR 3.91–2.53 CGY
Carolina Hurricanes
8-1-1 · W1
3.91
Projected
Calgary Flames
1-6-0
2.53
CAR 62%Draw 14%CGY 23%
Projected CAR 3.91–2.53 CGY
DraftKingstap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
CGY win
33%
34% (no-vig)
Total
6.31
6.5
Gap: -1 pts of win %, -0.19 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
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