NCAAFFinalOur Lady of Lourdes Stadium

Troy Trojans at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Final · ESPN+

Final

Troy Trojans

3-3 · L1

146 PF · 153 PA

Final

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

5-2 · W1

210 PF · 135 PA

TROY 41%UL 59%

Model: TROY 23.10–26.61 UL

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2836027220

Winner called · off by 23

Most typical sim

TROY 23 – UL 27

Final

TROY 6 – UL 33

Winner: Louisiana (60%)
Spread: UL -3 covers (51%)
Total: Over 48.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)23

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TROY vs UL

The model

How this number was built

TROY 23.10–26.61 UL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UL -4.7 vs TROY -6.4 · pred margin +3.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.6 vs +1.0 · model UL 28.0–23.8 TROY
Home field
+3.0 pts to UL
Record
UL 5-2 · TROY 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UL -3 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TROY	0	0	6	0	6
UL	7	12	7	7	33

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:150–7
KeDarius Wade 3 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
TDQ2 2:210–13
JJ Garner 37 Yd Run (Garner rush PAT failed)
FGQ2 1:440–16
Tony Sterner 42 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:000–19
Tony Sterner 46 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 10:486–19
Tucker Kilcrease 23 Yd Run (Ethan Head PAT failed)
TDQ3 2:206–26
Steven Blanco 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)
TDQ4 12:176–33
Anthony Reagan Jr. 15 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TROY	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	QBR
Tucker Kilcrease #10	5/10	76	7.6	46.2
Goose Crowder #9	9/16	65	4.1	13.7
Team	14/26	141	5.4	--

Rushing

TROY	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan Lovett #1	10	50	5.0	0	25
Tucker Kilcrease #10	4	32	8.0	1	23
Goose Crowder #9	5	25	5.0	0	10
Gavin Griffin #0	7	22	3.1	0	8
Jaheim Merriweather #3	2	-3	-1.5	0	1
Team	28	126	4.5	1	25

Receiving

TROY	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jace Petty #17	4	69	17.3	45
Mojo Dortch #5	2	20	10.0	13
Noreel White #4	1	17	17.0	17
TJ Lott #15	3	16	5.3	6
TK Keyes #8	1	12	12.0	12
Jordan Lovett #1	2	4	2.0	2
Jaheim Merriweather #3	1	3	3.0	3
Team	14	141	10.1	45

Fumbles

TROY	FUM	LOST
Goose Crowder #9	1	1
Noreel White #4	1	1
Team	2	2

Defense

TROY	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jordan Perry #18	13	6	0	1	0
Justin Powe #6	8	2	0.5	0	0
Donnie Smith #22	7	5	0	1	2
Jabari Strait #1	6	5	0	0	0
Keno Jones #15	6	4	0.5	0	0
Shemar Welch #12	5	3	0	0	0
TJ Thompson #4	5	2	0	0	0
Marlin Odom #17	4	2	0.5	0	0
Ty Clemons #11	3	1	0	0	1
Makel Green #41	3	1	0	0	0
Jamarion Keyes #9	3	1	0	0	0
Kavion Henderson #25	3	0	0	0	0
Miquon Merriweather #95	3	0	0.5	0	0
Marcus Goree Jr. #8	2	0	0	0	0
Doug Nelson #3	2	0	0	0	0
Delvin Whitaker #98	1	1	0	0	1
Luke Hodge #44	1	1	0	0	0
Keyshawn Campbell #20	1	1	0	0	0
Jaden Mosley #42	1	0	0	0	0
Kam Curry #0	1	0	0	0	0
Jon Bocchino #19	1	0	0	0	0
Knai Cook #10	1	0	0	0	0
Gavyn Baker #46	1	0	0	0	0
RaKeem Davis #93	1	0	0	0	0
Jaxon Villegez-Williams #99	1	0	0	0	0
Team	83	35	2	2	4

Kick returns

TROY	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
TJ Lott #15	4	66	16.5	24	0
Team	4	66	16.5	24	0

Punt returns

TROY	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Noreel White #4	2	0	0.0	0	0
Team	2	0	0.0	0	0

Kicking

TROY	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ethan Head #33	0/1	0.0	0	0/1	0
Team	0/1	0.0	0	0/1	0

Punting

TROY	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Evan Crenshaw #28	4	214	53.5	0	2	73
Team	4	214	53.5	0	2	73

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TROY	UL
1st Downs	12	23
3rd down efficiency	3-12	10-17
4th down efficiency	1-4	0-0
Total Yards	267	351
Passing	141	108
Comp/Att	14/26	13/23
Yards per pass	5.4	4.7
Rushing	126	243
Rushing Attempts	28	49
Yards per rush	4.5	5.0
Penalties	5-55	3-29
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	2	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	23:21	36:39

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

51%

TROY 23.10–26.61 UL

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.