NCAAFFinalO'Brien Field

Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Illinois Panthers

Final · ESPN+

Final

Lindenwood Lions

2-4

Final

Eastern Illinois Panthers

2-5

LIN 44%EIU 56%

Model: LIN 24.06–26.49 EIU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 560044266

Winner called · off by 18

Most typical sim

LIN 26 – EIU 25

Final

LIN 20 – EIU 13

Winner: Lindenwood (51%)
Spread: EIU +1.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 49.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)18

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LIN vs EIU

The model

How this number was built

LIN 24.06–26.49 EIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.7 vs -5.5 · model EIU 28.6–24.2 LIN
Home field
+3.0 pts to EIU
Record
EIU 2-5 · LIN 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward EIU -1.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LIN	3	7	3	7	20
EIU	0	7	6	0	13

How the points were scored

FGQ1 5:433–0
Will Graham 36 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 12:123–7
Jeremy Reeves 49 Yd pass from Cole LaCrue (Drew Schiller Kick)
TDQ2 0:2610–7
Steve Hall 10 Yd Run (Will Graham Kick)
FGQ3 8:0013–7
Will Graham 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 2:4713–13
Alex Ginnever 24 Yd pass from Cole LaCrue (Drew Schiller PAT blocked)
TDQ4 11:0020–13
Pops Battle 1 Yd Run (Will Graham Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LIN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	adjQBR
Pops Battle #9	26/34	230	6.8	1	—
Team	0/1	0	0.0	0	—
Team	26/35	230	6.6	1	—

Rushing

LIN	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jared Rhodes #7	19	67	3.5	0	12
Steve Hall #22	14	39	2.8	1	10
Pops Battle #9	7	27	3.9	1	19
Noah Triplett #28	1	5	5.0	0	5
Christopher Bennett Jr. #1	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	2	-2	-1.0	0	0
Team	44	137	3.1	2	19

Receiving

LIN	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Drew Krobath #8	6	81	13.5	25
Jalen Smith #4	5	44	8.8	16
Christopher Bennett Jr. #1	3	25	8.3	14
Aiden Grote #87	1	17	17.0	17
CJ Reese #3	1	16	16.0	16
Jared Rhodes #7	3	15	5.0	11
Mac Busteed #80	2	12	6.0	7
Steve Hall #22	3	12	4.0	6
Elijah Roy #18	2	8	4.0	4
Team	26	230	8.8	25

Fumbles

LIN	FUM	LOST	REC
Ashtin Rustemeyer #91	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

LIN	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
DeVonta Owens #2	7	6	0	2	1
Keshawn Lyons #3	5	5	0	0	0
Nolan O'Hara #24	3	3	0	1	0
Jalon Jones #20	3	2	0	1	0
Brayon Crawford #16	3	2	0	0	1
Jacob Waller #5	3	2	0	0	0
Caleb Jacobmeier #30	2	2	1	1	0
Elijah Thomas #7	2	2	0	0	0
Andrew Zook #98	2	1	0	0	0
Caelum Jones #11	2	1	0	0	0
Zach Lewis #15	2	0	0	0	0
Ashtin Rustemeyer #91	1	1	0	0	0
Jalen Smith #4	1	1	0	0	0
Andrew Baumgart #23	1	1	0	1	0
Ke'Andre McClendon #9	1	1	0	1	0
Team	38	30	1	7	2

Interceptions

LIN	INT	YDS	TD
Caleb Jacobmeier #30	1	19	0
Team	1	19	0

Punt returns

LIN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Christopher Bennett Jr. #1	1	6	6.0	6	0
Team	1	6	6.0	6	0

Kicking

LIN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will Graham #37	2/4	50.0	36	2/2	8
Team	2/4	50.0	36	2/2	8

Punting

LIN	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Liam Corley #65	3	107	35.7	0	0	47
Team	3	107	35.7	0	0	47

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LIN	EIU
1st Downs	23	13
3rd down efficiency	5-16	1-8
4th down efficiency	3-3	0-1
Total Yards	367	256
Passing	230	203
Comp/Att	26/35	15/24
Yards per pass	6.6	8.5
Rushing	137	53
Rushing Attempts	44	20
Yards per rush	3.1	2.7
Penalties	3-35	3-35
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	38:14	21:46

Computer pick · Spread

EIU +1.5

54%

LIN 24.06–26.49 EIU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.