NCAAFFinalTucker Stadium

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Final · ESPN+

Final

Eastern Kentucky Colonels

2-5

Final

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

6-1

EKU 22%TNTC 78%

Model: EKU 20.17–32.89 TNTC

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2641057402

Winner called · off by 17

Most typical sim

EKU 21 – TNTC 33

Final

EKU 20 – TNTC 49

Winner: Tennessee Tech (78%)
Spread: EKU +14.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 53.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)17

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: EKU vs TNTC

The model

How this number was built

EKU 20.17–32.89 TNTC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.1 vs -4.8 · model TNTC 31.6–22.6 EKU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TNTC
Record
TNTC 6-1 · EKU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TNTC -14.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
EKU	7	0	0	13	20
TNTC	7	21	14	7	49

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:380–7
Tre' Holloway 36 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ1 2:247–7
Jeffrey Kinley 95 Yd Interception Return (Devin Orr Kick)
TDQ2 9:237–14
Qua Ashley 2 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ2 8:397–21
Jameson Wharton 21 Yd Interception Return (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ2 0:227–28
Eric Weatherly 19 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ3 11:527–35
M.J. Flowers 7 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ3 6:117–42
Qua Ashley 42 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ4 11:037–49
Tre' Holloway 4 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Carter Brown Kick)
TDQ4 7:4414–49
Ryder Hooks 18 Yd Run (Devin Orr Kick)
TDQ4 0:0020–49
Blake Kendall Jr. 1 Yd Run

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

EKU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Jordyn Potts #5	5/12	34	2.8	0	2	—
Team	5/12	34	2.8	0	2	—

Rushing

EKU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ryder Hooks #24	10	166	16.6	1	41
Brady Hensley #42	11	50	4.5	0	21
Brayden Latham #14	8	25	3.1	0	8
Cortez Stone #22	4	24	6.0	0	17
Blake Kendall Jr. #15	1	1	1.0	1	1
Jordyn Potts #5	4	1	0.3	0	9
Team	38	267	7.0	2	41

Receiving

EKU	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Cameron Hergott #2	2	17	8.5	12
Cortez Stone #22	1	8	8.0	8
Jackson House #16	1	6	6.0	6
Brady Hensley #42	1	3	3.0	3
Team	5	34	6.8	12

Fumbles

EKU	FUM	LOST	REC
Ryder Hooks #24	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Defense

EKU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Cam Jessee #39	11	6	1	1.5	0	0	0
Kaden Smith #1	8	6	0	0	0	0	0
Jeffrey Kinley #30	8	5	0	0	0	0	1
Aden Tagaloa-Nelson #13	7	4	0	0	1	0	0
Jackson Marshall #37	5	4	0	1	0	0	0
Derek Taylor #10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Hand #96	4	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
Rishad Hence #21	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Redd #34	2	2	0	1	1	0	0
Keshawn Hayden #4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jack McGrath #25	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Payne Miller #97	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Nasir Spruill #5	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Cristian Conyer #12	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Brock Driver #8	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kaleb Neal #20	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davi'yon Hawkins-Ingram #91	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dyson Bell #3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Galva #6	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Preston Swope #18	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Luther #31	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Wells #23	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	69	35	1	4	2	1	1

Interceptions

EKU	INT	YDS	TD
Jeffrey Kinley #30	1	95	1
Team	1	95	1

Kick returns

EKU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Ryder Hooks #24	4	50	12.5	17	0
Team	4	50	12.5	17	0

Kicking

EKU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Devin Orr #44	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2
Team	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2

Punting

EKU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
J Jettson Brown #27	3	109	36.3	0	0	42
Team	3	109	36.3	0	0	42

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	EKU	TNTC
1st Downs	14	29
3rd down efficiency	3-8	7-10
4th down efficiency	0-2	0-0
Total Yards	301	453
Passing	34	215
Comp/Att	5/12	24/32
Yards per pass	2.8	6.7
Rushing	267	238
Rushing Attempts	38	36
Yards per rush	7.0	6.6
Penalties	8-59	6-47
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	2	1
Possession	24:42	35:18

Computer pick · Spread

EKU +14

55%

EKU 20.17–32.89 TNTC

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.