NCAAFFinalWashington-Grizzly Stadium

Idaho Vandals at Montana Grizzlies

Final · ESPN+

Final

Idaho Vandals

2-5

Final

Montana Grizzlies

5-3

IDHO 19%MONT 81%

Model: IDHO 23.50–37.73 MONT

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2949416397

Missed · off by 22

Most typical sim

IDHO 23 – MONT 38

Final

IDHO 42 – MONT 35

Winner: Montana (83%)
Spread: IDHO +17.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 61.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)22

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: IDHO vs MONT

The model

How this number was built

IDHO 23.50–37.73 MONT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.3 vs -2.9 · model MONT 29.9–25.7 IDHO
Home field
+3.0 pts to MONT
Record
MONT 5-3 · IDHO 2-5
Market prior
Blended 82% toward MONT -16.5 / total 62.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IDHO	14	7	14	7	42
MONT	0	14	14	7	35

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:057–0
Zack Card 10 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ1 1:3514–0
Ryan Jezioro 14 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ2 13:3914–7
Brooks Davis 18 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Jo Silver Kick)
TDQ2 6:2121–7
Joshua Wood 2 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ2 1:0521–14
Brooks Davis 5 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Jo Silver Kick)
TDQ3 12:2321–21
Brooks Davis 33 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Jo Silver Kick)
TDQ3 7:3728–21
Ryan Jezioro 13 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ3 5:5728–28
Landon Ransom-Goelz 22 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Jo Silver Kick)
TDQ3 0:1035–28
Hayden Kincheloe 6 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ4 11:5335–35
Eli Gillman 3 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Jo Silver Kick)
TDQ4 10:0742–35
Israel Carter 2 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

IDHO	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Joshua Wood #3	30/38	335	8.8	3	1	—
Team	30/38	335	8.8	3	1	—

Rushing

IDHO	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Joshua Wood #3	11	85	7.7	1	35
Hayden Kincheloe #37	11	44	4.0	1	12
Damonte Bias #7	11	32	2.9	0	6
Israel Carter #1	1	2	2.0	1	2
Kenny Golston #24	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	1	-3	-3.0	0	0
Team	36	158	4.4	3	35

Receiving

IDHO	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tony Harste #4	5	61	12.2	0	22
Nolan McWilliams #10	5	60	12.0	0	34
Damonte Bias #7	3	50	16.7	0	28
Ryan Jezioro #89	4	47	11.8	2	14
Daveon Superales #15	5	45	9.0	0	12
Gus Donnerberg #88	3	30	10.0	0	18
Zack Card #11	3	24	8.0	1	12
Lonyatta Alexander Jr. #2	1	10	10.0	0	10
Chance Bogan #13	1	8	8.0	0	8
Team	30	335	11.2	3	34

Fumbles

IDHO	FUM	LOST	REC
Damonte Bias #7	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

IDHO	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Khaled Rawls #4	11	9	0	2	0
Hysan Dalton #3	6	4	0	0	0
Aaron Kinsey #7	6	4	0	0	0
Jerry Allen III #23	5	3	0	0	1
Luca Moore #27	5	3	0	0	0
Cruz Hepburn #44	5	2	0	1	0
Davon Donaldson #0	5	2	0	0	0
Nikko Speer #43	3	2	0	1.5	0
Mitchel Jaskowiak #45	2	1	1	1	0
Ryder Bordner #42	2	1	0	0	0
H Hikifo'Ou Maile #98	2	1	0	1.5	0
Mason Krahn #41	1	1	1	1	0
Luke Teskey #99	1	1	0	0	0
Gus Donnerberg #88	1	1	0	1	0
Darrell Gipson Jr. #11	1	1	0	0	0
Brody Michael #12	1	1	0	0	0
Team	57	37	2	9	1

Kick returns

IDHO	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Trais Higgins #6	2	49	24.5	25	0
Team	2	49	24.5	25	0

Punt returns

IDHO	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Tony Harste #4	1	1	1.0	1	0
Team	1	1	1.0	1	0

Kicking

IDHO	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Owen Forsman #48	0/0	0.0	0	6/6	6
Team	0/0	0.0	0	6/6	6

Punting

IDHO	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	LONG
Tyler Kinsman #89	1	55	55.0	1	55
Cameron Pope #91	1	51	51.0	0	51
Team	2	106	53.0	1	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IDHO	MONT
1st Downs	32	24
3rd down efficiency	11-14	4-9
4th down efficiency	1-1	2-3
Total Yards	493	481
Passing	335	338
Comp/Att	30/38	25/31
Yards per pass	8.8	10.9
Rushing	158	143
Rushing Attempts	36	28
Yards per rush	4.4	5.1
Penalties	7-50	2-15
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	35:43	24:17

Computer pick · Spread

IDHO +17.5

56%

IDHO 23.50–37.73 MONT

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.