Austin Peay Governors at West Georgia Wolves
Final · ESPN+
Model: APSU 34.88–18.27 WES
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 501414214
- Winner: Austin Peay (85%)
- Spread: WES +21 covers (59%)
- Total: Under 55.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: APSU vs WES
The model
How this number was built
APSU 34.88–18.27 WES · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.4 vs -0.8 · model WES 23.9–27.7 APSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to WES
- RecordWES 1-6 · APSU 6-2
- Market priorBlended 82% toward APSU -19.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
| WES | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 8:200–3
Logan Lopez 49 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 4:020–10
DK Daniel 55 Yd pass from Colton Fitzgerald (Logan Lopez Kick)
- TDQ2 5:077–10
Chris Parson 7 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- TDQ3 1:2114–10
Chris Parson 1 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- FGQ4 10:1517–10
Hamilton DiBoyan 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 4:3924–10
Courtland Simmons 1 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| APSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Parson #3 | 12/21 | 139 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 12/21 | 139 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| APSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Courtland Simmons #11 | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 1 | 14 |
Chris Parson #3 | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 2 | 20 |
 Kaden Williams #6 | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | 6 |
 Kelvin Perkins III #5 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 16 |
 Isaiah Groves #10 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Denver Harper #15 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 45 | 186 | 4.1 | 3 | 20 |
Receiving
| APSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Courtland Simmons #11 | 2 | 47 | 23.5 | 0 | 43 |
 Marvin Sims #19 | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 25 |
 Jackson Head #13 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 24 |
 Isaac Kareem-Maman #81 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | 20 |
Kaden Williams #6 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
Denver Harper #15 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 12 | 139 | 11.6 | 0 | 43 |
Fumbles
| APSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Groves #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Caleb Merritt #4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Iker Sarabia-Favela #42 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Defense
| APSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trevor Hardy #22 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ta'Ron Haile #26 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eli Jones #34 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Chris Brown #8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kelton Crisp #12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Canaan Williams #29 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Deandre Creary #6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Caleb Merritt #4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Markell Redding #3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R RJ Jackson #93 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Williams #20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Demoris Jenkins #11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 David Portu #18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kendyle Ball #7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Corey Richardson #26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antori Hamilton #51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Wimpye #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malik Denkins #81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Lloyd #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jefferson Bretanys Desca #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Al Sandifer #45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keith Charney #23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 56 | 38 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Interceptions
| APSU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Trevor Hardy #22 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Kick returns
| APSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kaden Williams #6 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
Punt returns
| APSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver Harper #15 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kicking
| APSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hamilton DiBoyan #36 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 34 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 34 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| APSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Logan Leftrick #49 | 7 | 240 | 34.3 | 0 | 2 | 54 |
| Team | 7 | 240 | 34.3 | 0 | 2 | 54 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| APSU | WES | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 6-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Total Yards | 325 | 341 |
| Passing | 139 | 333 |
| Comp/Att | 12/21 | 30/47 |
| Yards per pass | 6.6 | 7.1 |
| Rushing | 186 | 8 |
| Rushing Attempts | 45 | 21 |
| Yards per rush | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| Penalties | 8-83 | 10-95 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 31:19 | 28:41 |
APSU 34.88–18.27 WES
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.