Villanova Wildcats at Fordham Rams
Final · ESPN+
Model: VILL 26.52–21.32 FOR
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 467711881
- Winner: Villanova (63%)
- Spread: FOR +7.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 47.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: VILL vs FOR
The model
How this number was built
VILL 26.52–21.32 FOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.4 vs -4.0 · model FOR 27.2–27.6 VILL
- Home field+3.0 pts to FOR
- RecordFOR 2-6 · VILL 3-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward VILL -7.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 14 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| FOR | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:157–0
Isaiah Ragland 15 Yd Run (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- TDQ1 8:417–7
Gunnar Smith 17 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
- TDQ1 3:4714–7
Ja'briel Mace 7 Yd Run (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- TDQ2 10:4721–7
Braden Reed 14 Yd pass from Isaiah Ragland (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- FGQ2 1:3921–10
Bennett Henderson 27 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:0828–10
Pat McQuaide 4 Yd Run (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- TDQ3 9:4935–10
Julian Glantz 1 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)
- FGQ3 4:5538–10
Dominic LeBlanc 25 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 8:2938–17
Gunnar Smith 3 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| VILL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pat McQuaide #7 | 18/24 | 235 | 9.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Team | 18/24 | 235 | 9.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| VILL | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Ragland #20 | 10 | 94 | 9.4 | 1 | 37 |
 Ja'briel Mace #4 | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 1 | 16 |
 Brandon Way Jr. #36 | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | 27 |
Pat McQuaide #7 | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 1 | 15 |
 Braden Reed #83 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
Team | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 38 | 246 | 6.5 | 3 | 37 |
Receiving
| VILL | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braden Reed #83 | 4 | 88 | 22.0 | 1 | 34 |
 Chris Colby #13 | 2 | 57 | 28.5 | 0 | 41 |
Isaiah Ragland #20 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Brandon Binkowski #81 | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 11 |
 Jake Hilton #5 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Sean Welde #89 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Nolan Clayton #19 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Julian Glantz #18 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
Ja'briel Mace #4 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 18 | 235 | 13.1 | 2 | 41 |
Fumbles
| VILL | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Isaiah Ragland #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| VILL | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Omari Bursey #8 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayvont Williams #21 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Caballero #15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Newton Essiem #1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Oluremi #3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mikey Allen #6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Taylor #22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Garrett Rogan #41 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Jamie Tyson #23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Ivan Murray Jr. #9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 AJ Koukou #50 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nate Sullivan #93 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brenden Toppin #28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Capri Martin #0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Julian Glantz #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dominic LeBlanc #46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nigel McSween #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drake Dawson #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 63 | 35 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| VILL | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Rogan #41 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| VILL | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ja'briel Mace #4 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
Punt returns
| VILL | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braden Reed #83 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 12 | 0 |
Kicking
| VILL | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dominic LeBlanc #46 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 25 | 5/5 | 8 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 25 | 5/5 | 8 |
Punting
| VILL | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Myers #39 | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
| Team | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VILL | FOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-9 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Total Yards | 481 | 282 |
| Passing | 235 | 60 |
| Comp/Att | 18/24 | 11/26 |
| Yards per pass | 9.8 | 2.3 |
| Rushing | 246 | 222 |
| Rushing Attempts | 38 | 38 |
| Yards per rush | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Penalties | 5-49 | 5-30 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 29:18 | 30:42 |
VILL 26.52–21.32 FOR
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.