NCAAFFinalAndy Kerr Stadium

Georgetown Hoyas at Colgate Raiders

Final · ESPN+

Final

Georgetown Hoyas

2-4

Final

Colgate Raiders

4-3

GTWN 14%COLG 86%

Model: GTWN 13.94–31.34 COLG

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2984104468

Missed · off by 25

Most typical sim

GTWN 16 – COLG 31

Final

GTWN 27 – COLG 17

Winner: Colgate (84%)
Spread: GTWN +18.5 covers (57%)
Total: Over 45.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)25

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GTWN vs COLG

The model

How this number was built

GTWN 13.94–31.34 COLG · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
COLG +0.3 off · GTWN -0.5 off, shrunk 55%
Home field
+3.0 pts to COLG
Record
COLG 4-3 · GTWN 2-4
Market prior
Blended 82% toward COLG -20.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
GTWN	0	7	7	13	27
COLG	10	7	0	0	17

How the points were scored

FGQ1 4:160–3
Luke Vogeler 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:300–10
Cole Fulton 17 Yd Run (Luke Vogeler Kick)
TDQ2 12:030–17
Joey Tomasso 10 Yd Run (Luke Vogeler Kick)
TDQ2 5:537–17
Burke Carroll 1 Yd pass from Gavin Beard (Thomas Anderson Kick)
TDQ3 10:4914–17
Burke Carroll 23 Yd pass from Gavin Beard (Thomas Anderson Kick)
TDQ4 10:3721–17
Hassan Mahasin 3 Yd pass from Gavin Beard (Thomas Anderson Kick)
TDQ4 0:5627–17
Jayden Sumpter 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

GTWN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
G Gavin Beard #15	24/33	175	5.3	3	1	—
Team	24/33	175	5.3	3	1	—

Rushing

GTWN	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Clay Ash #28	16	113	7.1	0	66
J Jayden Sumpter #8	14	64	4.6	1	14
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0
G Gavin Beard #15	4	-8	-2.0	0	6
Team	35	169	4.8	1	66

Receiving

GTWN	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Hassan Mahasin #2	6	47	7.8	1	16
L Legend Bernard #13	2	27	13.5	0	18
B Burke Carroll #87	2	24	12.0	2	23
I Isaiah Grimes #5	4	24	6.0	0	13
J Jonathan Alexander #82	4	21	5.3	0	9
Clay Ash #28	4	19	4.8	0	8
S Samir Crosby #80	2	13	6.5	0	9
Team	24	175	7.3	3	23

Fumbles

GTWN	FUM	LOST	REC
D Dean Mangiocavallo #0	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

GTWN	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
D Dean Mangiocavallo #0	6	3	1	1	0
R Ryan Hussey #18	6	3	0	1	0
B Bryson Logan #32	6	2	0	1	0
C Chigozie Oge-Evans #11	5	4	1	1	0
J Jack Casey #51	5	4	0	0	1
C Chris Martin #12	5	3	0	0	0
Q Quincy Briggs #27	4	3	0	0.5	1
J Jordan Johnson #54	4	3	0	0	0
F Folu Shobowale #55	3	1	0	0	0
H Henry Eber #97	2	2	1	1	0
W Wedner Cadet #7	2	2	0	0	1
M Michael Bonsu #22	2	1	0	0	0
B Brian Lloyd #4	2	1	0	0	1
C Cody Pham #10	2	0	0	0	0
B Brian Allen #16	2	0	0	0.5	0
A Armon Richardson #20	1	0	0	0	0
J Joel Mireles #21	1	0	0	0	0
R Ryan Bannon #48	1	0	0	0	0
K Kamari Loving #52	1	0	0	0	0
Team	60	32	3	6	4

Kick returns

GTWN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Hassan Mahasin #2	1	20	20.0	20
B Bryce Cox #1	1	11	11.0	11
Team	2	31	15.5	20

Punt returns

GTWN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Hassan Mahasin #2	2	6	3.0	3	0
Team	2	6	3.0	3	0

Kicking

GTWN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
T Thomas Anderson #81	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3
Team	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3

Punting

GTWN	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
J Josh Leff #39	7	239	34.1	0	2	39
Team	7	239	34.1	0	2	39

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GTWN	COLG
1st Downs	18	18
3rd down efficiency	6-15	5-15
4th down efficiency	2-2	0-1
Total Yards	344	251
Passing	175	119
Comp/Att	24/33	11/28
Yards per pass	5.3	4.3
Rushing	169	132
Rushing Attempts	35	38
Yards per rush	4.8	3.5
Penalties	7-70	1-5
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	28:38	31:22

Computer pick · Spread

GTWN +18.5

57%

GTWN 13.94–31.34 COLG

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.