NCAAFFinalChristy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium

Lafayette Leopards at Bucknell Bison

Final · ESPN+

Final

Lafayette Leopards

2-4

Final

Bucknell Bison

1-6

LAF 57%BUCK 43%

Model: LAF 27.93–24.90 BUCK

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3925782022

Winner called · off by 26

Most typical sim

LAF 28 – BUCK 25

Final

LAF 20 – BUCK 7

Winner: Lafayette (57%)
Spread: BUCK +4.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 52.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)26

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAF vs BUCK

The model

How this number was built

LAF 27.93–24.90 BUCK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.4 vs -4.6 · model BUCK 29.0–25.3 LAF
Home field
+3.0 pts to BUCK
Record
BUCK 1-6 · LAF 2-4
Market prior
Blended 82% toward LAF -4.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LAF	3	7	7	3	20
BUCK	0	7	0	0	7

How the points were scored

FGQ1 0:163–0
Jack Simonetta 33 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 9:113–7
Tom Arth 3 Yd pass from Emmett Dowling (Juan Garanton Kick)
TDQ2 6:5310–7
Jakyre Henley 14 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)
TDQ3 5:3717–7
Jakyre Henley 7 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)
FGQ4 1:4420–7
Jack Simonetta 28 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LAF	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	adjQBR
E Eddie Jordan #11	18/33	158	4.8	—
Daniel Lipovski #2	1/1	8	8.0	—
Team	19/34	166	4.9	—

Rushing

LAF	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jakyre Henley #5	22	121	5.5	2	16
M Malachi Gamble #34	13	26	2.0	0	7
E Eddie Jordan #11	10	17	1.7	0	14
Team	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	46	162	3.5	2	16

Receiving

LAF	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Mason Kuehner #8	6	55	9.2	13
K Kameron Vance #13	4	49	12.3	17
Ethan Hosak #85	2	22	11.0	14
Carson Persing #7	3	21	7.0	11
Matthew Scerbo #10	2	8	4.0	5
Hunter Ditrano #89	1	6	6.0	6
Nick Bierman #87	1	5	5.0	5
Team	19	166	8.7	17

Fumbles

LAF	FUM	REC
E Eddie Jordan #11	1	0
Callahan Blair #6	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

LAF	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Paul Widerman #9	7	1	0	1	0
Darrick LeBeouf #7	6	2	0	1	0
Jeremiah Polk #21	4	1	0	0	0
Brandon Albert #14	4	1	0	0	0
Jalen Edwards #2	3	3	0	1	0
Drew Wilson #4	3	3	0	0	0
Beckham Dee #11	3	2	0	0	0
Xavier Johnson #0	3	2	0	0	0
Callahan Blair #6	3	1	0.5	0	0
Michael Vaughn #95	3	1	0	0	0
Dhonte Jackson #1	3	1	0	0	0
Joey Shimko #52	2	1	0	0	0
Sean Kabengele #91	2	1	0	0	0
Darien Riley #99	2	0	0.5	0	0
Sean Curtis #90	1	1	0	0	1
Donnie Williams #10	1	0	0	0	0
G Gavin Zeiman #59	1	0	0	0	0
Daniel Adefolarin #8	0	0	0	0	1
Ahmir Crawley #55	0	0	0	1	0
Luke Dale #20	0	0	0	0	1
Team	51	21	1	4	3

Interceptions

LAF	INT	YDS	TD
Jalen Edwards #2	2	40	0
Team	2	40	0

Kick returns

LAF	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Zane Wooldridge #4	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0

Punt returns

LAF	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Mason Kuehner #8	3	8	2.7	8	0
Team	3	8	2.7	8	0

Kicking

LAF	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jack Simonetta #17	2/2	100.0	33	2/2	8
Team	2/2	100.0	33	2/2	8

Punting

LAF	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Christian Bush #38	7	285	40.7	1	2	57
Team	7	285	40.7	1	2	57

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAF	BUCK
1st Downs	23	13
3rd down efficiency	8-18	6-13
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	328	256
Passing	166	139
Comp/Att	19/34	13/30
Yards per pass	4.9	4.6
Rushing	162	117
Rushing Attempts	46	25
Yards per rush	3.5	4.7
Penalties	1-9	5-50
Turnovers	0	3
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	35:59	24:01

Computer pick · Spread

BUCK +4.5

53%

LAF 27.93–24.90 BUCK

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.