Akron Zips at Miami (OH) RedHawks
Final · ESPN+
Model: AKR 18.54–29.35 M-OH
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2098399951
- Winner: Miami OH (75%)
- Spread: M-OH -10 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: AKR vs M-OH
The model
How this number was built
AKR 18.54–29.35 M-OH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexM-OH -10.1 vs AKR -21.0 · pred margin +10.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.6 vs -5.3 · model M-OH 32.0–19.5 AKR
- Home field+3.0 pts to M-OH
- RecordM-OH 4-3 · AKR 1-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward M-OH -9.5 / total 47.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| M-OH | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 5:187–0
Marcel Williams 6 Yd pass from Brayden Roggow (Matthew Schramm Kick)
- TDQ1 1:117–7
Rodney Nelson 9 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
- FGQ2 2:297–10
Kellan McLaughlin 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:167–17
Damarion Witten 27 Yd pass from Caleb Heavner (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
- FGQ3 3:327–20
Kellan McLaughlin 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 2:467–27
Blayne Myrick 36 Yd Interception Return (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
- TDQ3 0:4914–27
Jordan Gant 10 Yd Run (Aidan Stire Kick)
- TDQ4 13:5714–34
Rodney Nelson 58 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| AKR | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brayden Roggow #6 | 22/38 | 234 | 6.2 | 1 | 4 | 10.8 |
| Team | 22/38 | 234 | 6.2 | 1 | 4 | -- |
Rushing
| AKR | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jordan Gant #1 | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 | 10 |
 Taven Curry #26 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Marquese Williams #24 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | 9 |
Brayden Roggow #6 | 11 | 10 | 0.9 | 0 | 9 |
Team | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 32 | 81 | 2.5 | 1 | 11 |
Receiving
| AKR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miles Burris #4 | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 | 29 |
 Jean Louis III #9 | 1 | 49 | 49.0 | 0 | 49 |
 Kyan Mason #3 | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 | 31 |
M Marcel Williams #9 | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 1 | 13 |
 Elijah Alexander #83 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 19 |
 Conner Cravaack #85 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 5 |
Jordan Gant #1 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 22 | 234 | 10.6 | 1 | 49 |
Fumbles
| AKR | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Brayden Roggow #6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| AKR | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Donelius Johnson #32 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Tairan Davis Jr. #29 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Williams #55 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cyrus Durham #1 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kurtis Waye #90 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Jones #7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dahvon Frazier #16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Dwight Nunoo #18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Vann Kavals #97 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daunte Curtis #23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aamii Branch #9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Ronald Hull #5 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khory Moss #14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mehki Flowers #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brandon Smith #56 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Paul Davis #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rodrick Hunter #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jon'Trell Mixon #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Hobson #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caiden Newsome #17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 55 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| AKR | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Rodrick Hunter #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| AKR | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Hills #8 | 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 71 | 0 |
M Marcel Williams #9 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 114 | 38.0 | 71 | 0 |
Kicking
| AKR | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthew Schramm #47 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
 Aidan Stire #37 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| AKR | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joseph Castle #95 | 5 | 178 | 35.6 | 0 | 2 | 55 |
| Team | 5 | 178 | 35.6 | 0 | 2 | 55 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AKR | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-17 | 2-9 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 315 | 389 |
| Passing | 234 | 65 |
| Comp/Att | 22/38 | 8/16 |
| Yards per pass | 6.2 | 4.1 |
| Rushing | 81 | 324 |
| Rushing Attempts | 32 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 2.5 | 9.3 |
| Penalties | 7-51 | 4-40 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 4 | 1 |
| Possession | 32:04 | 27:56 |
AKR 18.54–29.35 M-OH
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.