NCAAFFinalRynearson Stadium

Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles

Final · ESPN+

Final

Toledo Rockets

5-2 · W1

254 PF · 165 PA

Final

Eastern Michigan Eagles

4-4 · L1

172 PF · 207 PA

TOL 96%EMU 4%

Model: TOL 29.79–21.81 EMU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4010504064

Winner called · off by 13

Most typical sim

TOL 30 – EMU 23

Final

TOL 34 – EMU 14

Winner: Toledo (66%)
Spread: TOL -6.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 52.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)13

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TOL vs EMU

The model

How this number was built

TOL 29.79–21.81 EMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
EMU -15.4 vs TOL -4.4 · pred margin -8.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.4 vs +6.8 · model EMU 20.7–31.8 TOL
Home field
+3.0 pts to EMU
Record
EMU 4-4 · TOL 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TOL -7.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TOL	10	21	3	0	34
EMU	0	7	7	0	14

How the points were scored

TDQ1 7:507–0
Adjatay Dabbs 28 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)
FGQ1 6:2110–0
Reice Griffith 30 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:1317–0
CJ Miller 1 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)
TDQ2 10:4617–7
Joshua Long 30 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)
TDQ2 7:2724–7
Autavius Ison 13 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)
TDQ2 1:3631–7
CJ Miller 3 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)
FGQ3 10:5434–7
Reice Griffith 29 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 3:5734–14
Harold Mack 12 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TOL	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
John Alan Richter #6	24/30	288	9.6	1	0	68.1
Team	24/30	288	9.6	1	0	--

Rushing

TOL	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Autavius Ison #4	18	104	5.8	1	42
CJ Miller #22	13	48	3.7	2	17
Connor Walendzak #8	6	38	6.3	0	19
John Alan Richter #6	2	4	2.0	0	4
Team	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	40	192	4.8	3	42

Receiving

TOL	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bryson Hammer #12	5	69	13.8	0	18
Adjatay Dabbs #3	5	66	13.2	1	28
Cooper Rusk #13	2	50	25.0	0	45
Sam Lee #43	5	47	9.4	0	16
Terrell Crosby Jr. #5	3	36	12.0	0	16
Noah Sanders #23	1	7	7.0	0	7
Daryl Barnett Jr. #19	1	7	7.0	0	7
Connor Walendzak #8	1	4	4.0	0	4
CJ Miller #22	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	24	288	12.0	1	45

Fumbles

TOL	FUM	LOST	REC
Autavius Ison #4	1	1	0
John Alan Richter #6	1	0	0
Lucas Lambert-Pipkin #52	0	0	1
Max Allen #49	0	0	1
Team	2	1	2

Defense

TOL	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Julian Fox #10	11	6	0	1	0	1
Isaac Zay #44	10	7	0.5	2.5	0	0
Andrew Zock #0	9	4	2	2	0	9
Armorion Smith #7	4	1	0	0	1	0
Isaac Prince #19	4	1	0.5	0.5	0	0
Nicholas Thompson #22	3	2	0	0	1	0
KJ Thomas #8	3	2	0	0	1	0
Nathaniel Chandler #96	3	1	0	0	0	0
Zach Johnson #90	3	1	0.5	0.5	0	0
Ezra Odinjor #2	2	2	2	2	0	3
Cam Jones #1	2	2	0	0	0	0
Lucas Lambert-Pipkin #52	2	0	0.5	0.5	0	1
Micah Fils-Aime #98	2	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Sahakian #21	1	1	0	0	0	0
Nathan Gersh #36	1	1	0	0	0	0
Tyrell Russell #25	1	1	0	0	3	1
Israel Petite #23	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jacob Newell #88	1	0	0	0	0	0
Hyajah Miller #11	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tommy Huss #92	1	0	0	0	0	0
Wayne Peart II #95	1	0	0	0	0	1
Daryl Barnett Jr. #19	1	0	0	0	0	0
Donovan Watkins #4	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	67	33	6	9	7	16

Kick returns

TOL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Bryson Hammer #12	1	19	19.0	19	0
Team	1	19	19.0	19	0

Punt returns

TOL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Bryson Hammer #12	1	6	6.0	6	0
Team	1	6	6.0	6	0

Kicking

TOL	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Reice Griffith #93	2/2	100.0	30	4/4	10
Team	2/2	100.0	30	4/4	10

Punting

TOL	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Markus Meincke #47	4	166	41.5	0	2	46
Team	4	166	41.5	0	2	46

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOL	EMU
1st Downs	21	21
3rd down efficiency	5-13	5-15
4th down efficiency	1-2	0-4
Total Yards	480	276
Passing	288	242
Comp/Att	24/30	20/43
Yards per pass	9.6	5.6
Rushing	192	34
Rushing Attempts	40	28
Yards per rush	4.8	1.2
Penalties	14-118	4-30
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	1	2
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	33:35	26:25

Computer pick · Total

Over 53.5

50%

TOL 29.78–21.82 EMU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.