NCAAFFinalKelly/Shorts Stadium

Western Michigan Broncos at Central Michigan Chippewas

Final · ESPN+

Final

Western Michigan Broncos

5-2 · W3

175 PF · 118 PA

Final

Central Michigan Chippewas

3-4 · L2

116 PF · 179 PA

WMU 68%CMU 32%

Model: WMU 25.20–17.40 CMU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4127947397

Winner called · off by 10

Most typical sim

WMU 25 – CMU 20

Final

WMU 21 – CMU 14

Winner: W Michigan (63%)
Spread: CMU +7 covers (52%)push
Total: Over 42.5 (60%)
Score error (both teams)10

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WMU vs CMU

The model

How this number was built

WMU 25.20–17.40 CMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CMU -14.5 vs WMU -2.0 · pred margin -7.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.0 vs +3.9 · model CMU 18.8–24.7 WMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to CMU
Record
CMU 3-4 · WMU 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward WMU -7.5 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WMU	7	7	7	0	21
CMU	0	0	0	14	14

How the points were scored

TDQ1 3:087–0
Jalen Buckley 9 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)
TDQ2 6:3214–0
Nate Levicki 10 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)
TDQ3 5:5121–0
Jalen Buckley 7 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)
TDQ4 13:5221–7
Jaden Allen 32 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Caden VanHuis Kick)
TDQ4 0:4421–14
Jadyn Glasser 2 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

WMU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Broc Lowry #12	5/8	48	6.0	1	0	62.7
Team	5/8	48	6.0	1	0	--

Rushing

WMU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jalen Buckley #6	24	150	6.3	2	20
Lolo Mataele #24	13	60	4.6	0	12
Broc Lowry #12	7	16	2.3	0	12
Emazon Littlejohn #1	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	45	224	5.0	2	20

Receiving

WMU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Aveion Chenault #2	2	34	17.0	0	23
Nate Levicki #88	1	10	10.0	1	10
Emazon Littlejohn #1	2	4	2.0	0	5
Team	5	48	9.6	1	23

Fumbles

WMU	FUM	LOST	REC
Kordell Gouldsby #5	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

WMU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
J Justyce Betts #10	12	5	0	0	0	0
Dillon Moore #12	7	5	1	1	0	1
Domanick Moon #47	7	4	0	0	1	0
Jarvarius Sims #8	7	3	0	0	0	0
Scoop Gardner Jr. #2	6	5	2	3	1	1
Joey Pope #6	4	1	0	0	0	0
Joshua Franklin #1	3	3	0	0	2	0
Daeh McCullough #14	3	2	0	0	0	0
Brenden Anes #0	3	2	0	0	0	0
Ahmed Tounkara #94	3	1	0	0	0	0
Austin Alexander #4	3	1	0	0	0	2
Kouri Crump #26	2	1	0	0	1	0
Amarian Louis #22	2	1	0	0	1	0
Dalton Gustwiller #96	2	0	0	0	0	0
KJ Burley #15	2	0	0	0	0	3
Dakari Frazier #98	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ryan Brotherton #83	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jordon Thomas #13	1	1	0	0	0	0
Braden Steely #19	1	1	0	0	0	0
Gabe Welch #42	1	1	0	0	0	0
Cam'ron Barber #17	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jori Benson #90	1	0	0	0	0	0
DeJuan Echoles Jr. #31	1	0	0	0	0	1
Zavian Tibbs #41	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	74	40	3	4	6	9

Interceptions

WMU	INT	YDS	TD
Daeh McCullough #14	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Punt returns

WMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Kordell Gouldsby #5	1	1	1.0	1	0
Team	1	1	1.0	1	0

Kicking

WMU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Dieter Kelly #32	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3
Team	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3

Punting

WMU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ryan Millmore #25	4	169	42.3	0	2	53
Team	4	169	42.3	0	2	53

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WMU	CMU
1st Downs	15	20
3rd down efficiency	7-13	4-15
4th down efficiency	2-2	3-7
Total Yards	272	337
Passing	48	179
Comp/Att	5/8	16/32
Yards per pass	6.0	5.6
Rushing	224	158
Rushing Attempts	45	40
Yards per rush	5.0	4.0
Penalties	5-31	7-62
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	29:44	30:16

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

54%

WMU 25.20–17.40 CMU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.