NCAAFFinalFirst Community Stadium

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Rice Owls

Final · ESPN+

Final

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

4-3 · W1

203 PF · 157 PA

Final

Rice Owls

1-6 · L6

119 PF · 203 PA

TLSA 59%RICE 41%

Model: TLSA 25.76–21.90 RICE

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 841036199

Winner called · off by 16

Most typical sim

TLSA 26 – RICE 21

Final

TLSA 38 – RICE 17

Winner: Tulsa (62%)
Spread: TLSA -4.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 46.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)16

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TLSA vs RICE

The model

How this number was built

TLSA 25.76–21.90 RICE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
RICE -13.5 vs TLSA -5.3 · pred margin -3.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.7 vs -0.5 · model RICE 22.9–26.2 TLSA
Home field
+3.0 pts to RICE
Record
RICE 1-6 · TLSA 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TLSA -3.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TLSA	0	21	3	14	38
RICE	7	10	0	0	17

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:100–7
Jacurri Brown 50 Yd Run (Tommy Bauchiero Kick)
FGQ2 14:560–10
Tommy Bauchiero 32 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 11:587–10
Damari Alston 4 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)
TDQ2 10:597–17
Jacurri Brown 78 Yd Run (Tommy Bauchiero Kick)
TDQ2 2:4814–17
Javon Ross 11 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)
TDQ2 0:3321–17
Oran Singleton Jr. 8 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)
FGQ3 8:2124–17
Owen Carey 35 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 10:0630–17
Sevion Morrison 6 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey PAT failed)
TDQ4 3:3938–17
Trequan Jones 45 Yd Run (Baylor Hayes Run for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TLSA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Baylor Hayes #10	20/27	249	9.2	3	0	87.1
Team	20/27	249	9.2	3	0	--

Rushing

TLSA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Trequan Jones #3	12	77	6.4	1	45
Damari Alston #6	12	52	4.3	1	13
Jimmy Calloway #7	2	20	10.0	0	11
Baylor Hayes #10	5	3	0.6	0	10
Team	3	2	0.7	0	4
Dexter Williams II #5	2	-2	-1.0	0	0
Team	36	152	4.2	2	45

Receiving

TLSA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Oran Singleton Jr. #2	7	87	12.4	1	33
David Wells Jr. #1	2	52	26.0	0	35
Javon Ross #9	3	31	10.3	1	12
Damari Alston #6	1	26	26.0	0	26
Jewlyen Roberts #84	1	17	17.0	0	17
Sevion Morrison #28	2	12	6.0	1	6
Trequan Jones #3	1	8	8.0	0	8
Chris Gacayan II #82	1	8	8.0	0	8
Jimmy Calloway #7	1	4	4.0	0	4
Xavier Green #88	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	20	249	12.5	3	35

Fumbles

TLSA	FUM	REC
Damari Alston #6	1	0
Trequan Jones #3	1	0
Hudson Ball #32	0	1
Team	2	1

Defense

TLSA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Tyson Williams #4	12	7	0	0.5	0
Chris Thompson Jr. #6	10	3	0	0	0
Rylan Leathers #19	8	4	0	0	0
Dax Collins #9	8	2	0	0.5	0
Arias Nash #10	6	2	0	0	0
Sam Stone #25	5	2	0	0	0
Devin Robinson #2	4	3	1	1	0
Jaylen George #11	4	3	0	0	0
Zach Williams #1	4	1	0	0	0
Dailen Howard #88	3	1	0	0	0
Thomas Davis #15	3	0	0	0	0
Kyran Duhon #0	2	2	2	2	0
Caldra Williford #16	2	1	0	0	0
Ty Anderson #50	2	1	0	0	0
Ashton Williams #5	2	1	0	0	1
JD Drew #3	2	0	0	0	0
Zane Woodham #27	2	0	0	0	0
Tristan Lawyer #40	2	0	0	0	0
Ty Williams #22	1	1	0	0	0
Tyler Rich #58	1	0	0	0	0
Carter Langenderfer #28	1	0	0	0	0
Team	84	34	3	4	1

Kick returns

TLSA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Trequan Jones #3	2	28	14.0	18	0
Team	2	28	14.0	18	0

Punt returns

TLSA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Oran Singleton Jr. #2	1	6	6.0	6	0
Team	1	6	6.0	6	0

Kicking

TLSA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Owen Carey #10	1/1	100.0	35	3/4	6
Team	1/1	100.0	35	3/4	6

Punting

TLSA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Max Tulen #29	2	88	44.0	0	2	55
Team	2	88	44.0	0	2	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TLSA	RICE
1st Downs	22	19
3rd down efficiency	6-11	4-11
4th down efficiency	1-2	1-3
Total Yards	401	351
Passing	249	62
Comp/Att	20/27	4/8
Yards per pass	9.2	7.8
Rushing	152	289
Rushing Attempts	36	54
Yards per rush	4.2	5.4
Penalties	6-63	7-75
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	30:28	29:32

Computer pick · Spread

TLSA -4

51%

TLSA 25.76–21.90 RICE

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.