NCAAFFinalLincoln Financial Field

Charlotte 49ers at Temple Owls

Final · ESPN+

Final

Charlotte 49ers

1-6 · W1

134 PF · 284 PA

Final

Temple Owls

2-5 · L2

180 PF · 196 PA

CLT <1%TEM >99%

Model: CLT 14.61–33.44 TEM

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 807480961

Missed · off by 25

Most typical sim

CLT 15 – TEM 33

Final

CLT 38 – TEM 31

Winner: Temple (86%)
Spread: CLT +21 covers (57%)
Total: Over 46.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)25

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CLT vs TEM

The model

How this number was built

CLT 14.61–33.44 TEM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TEM -7.3 vs CLT -25.3 · pred margin +18.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.4 vs -12.0 · model TEM 37.7–15.1 CLT
Home field
+3.0 pts to TEM
Record
TEM 2-5 · CLT 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TEM -17.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CLT	7	0	14	17	38
TEM	7	7	7	10	31

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:137–0
Khamani Alexander 1 Yd Run (Aiden Bui Kick)
TDQ1 4:187–7
Keveun Mason 21 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)
TDQ2 1:387–14
Ajani Sheppard 7 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)
TDQ3 12:1114–14
Derrick Eley 24 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Aiden Bui Kick)
TDQ3 7:1721–14
Conner Harrell 8 Yd Run (Aiden Bui Kick)
TDQ3 6:2621–21
Ajani Sheppard 44 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)
TDQ4 14:1228–21
Gus McGee 9 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Aiden Bui Kick)
TDQ4 11:0428–28
Peter Clarke 4 Yd pass from Ajani Sheppard (Carl Hardin Kick)
TDQ4 8:4035–28
Conner Harrell 10 Yd Run (Aiden Bui Kick)
FGQ4 1:4838–28
Aiden Bui 47 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 0:4838–31
Carl Hardin 28 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

CLT	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Conner Harrell #15	23/31	281	9.1	2	0	85.2
Team	23/31	281	9.1	2	0	--

Rushing

CLT	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Henry Rutledge #21	17	123	7.2	0	48
Conner Harrell #15	7	22	3.1	2	10
Khamani Alexander #5	9	20	2.2	1	11
Derrick Eley #89	1	9	9.0	0	9
Team	2	-3	-1.5	0	0
Jaylen White #10	2	-3	-1.5	0	2
Team	38	168	4.4	3	48

Receiving

CLT	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Derrick Eley #89	6	96	16.0	1	32
Brody Dawyot #19	4	60	15.0	0	29
Jaylen Hampton #2	3	57	19.0	0	35
Jaden Barnes #1	5	53	10.6	0	21
Logan Mauldin #3	2	15	7.5	0	9
Gus McGee #17	1	9	9.0	1	9
Henry Rutledge #21	2	-9	-4.5	0	2
Team	23	281	12.2	2	35

Fumbles

CLT	FUM	LOST	REC
Henry Rutledge #21	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

CLT	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Collin Gill #0	8	6	0	0	0	0
Kadin Schmitz #19	8	5	0	1	0	0
Dy'Lon Womack #3	7	6	0	0	0	0
Gavin Willis #13	7	5	0	1	1	0
Jonathan Patterson #5	5	2	0	1	0	0
Jaylon Johnson #2	4	4	1	1	0	0
Jameel Croft Jr. #1	3	3	0	0	0	0
Devin Ancrum #95	2	2	0	1	1	0
Chase Usher #18	2	2	0	0	0	0
CJ Clinkscales Jr. #12	2	1	0	0	0	0
Shamar McIntosh #16	2	1	0	0	0	0
DJ Burgess #7	1	1	1	1	0	1
Jamarrion Solomon #51	1	1	0	0	0	0
Shaku Sangarie #55	1	1	0	0	0	0
Conner Harrell #15	1	0	0	0	0	0
Reginhard Pierre-Nau #61	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kaden Catoe #22	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	56	40	2	6	2	1

Kick returns

CLT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Henry Rutledge #21	3	75	25.0	27
Derrick Eley #89	2	40	20.0	24
Team	5	115	23.0	27

Punt returns

CLT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jaden Barnes #1	1	1	1.0	1	0
Team	1	1	1.0	1	0

Kicking

CLT	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Aiden Bui #84	1/2	50.0	47	5/5	8
Team	1/2	50.0	47	5/5	8

Punting

CLT	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ian Kelly #44	1	45	45.0	0	1	45
Team	1	45	45.0	0	1	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CLT	TEM
1st Downs	26	20
3rd down efficiency	6-10	6-12
4th down efficiency	0-1	0-2
Total Yards	449	455
Passing	281	249
Comp/Att	23/31	17/27
Yards per pass	9.1	9.2
Rushing	168	206
Rushing Attempts	38	34
Yards per rush	4.4	6.1
Penalties	3-11	5-65
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	32:49	27:11

Computer pick · Spread

CLT +21

58%

CLT 14.61–33.42 TEM

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.