NCAAFFinalMichigan Stadium

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines

Final · CBS

Final

Penn State Nittany Lions

3-4 · L4

201 PF · 132 PA

Final

Michigan Wolverines

4-2 · W1

136 PF · 97 PA

PSU 39%MICH 61%

Model: PSU 19.66–24.20 MICH

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1253035322

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

PSU 19 – MICH 24

Final

PSU 18 – MICH 21

Winner: Michigan (62%)
Spread: PSU +6 covers (51%)
Total: Over 42.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PSU vs MICH

The model

How this number was built

PSU 19.66–24.20 MICH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MICH +10.9 vs PSU +12.5 · pred margin +4.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.5 vs +6.6 · model MICH 24.5–22.9 PSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to MICH
Record
MICH 4-2 · PSU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward MICH -6 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PSU	3	0	0	15	18
MICH	0	0	14	7	21

How the points were scored

FGQ1 5:583–0
Ryan Barker 24 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 11:583–7
Bryson Kuzdzal 43 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)
TDQ3 2:143–14
Jordan Marshall 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)
TDQ4 11:4011–14
Carson Hansen 2 Yd Run (Rocco Becht Pass to Benjamin Brahmer for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 2:5811–21
Tommy Carr 12 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)
TDQ4 1:1118–21
Chase Sowell 24 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

PSU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Rocco Becht #3	28/44	267	6.1	1	2	70.8
Team	28/44	267	6.1	1	2	--

Rushing

PSU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Carson Hansen #21	15	51	3.4	1	8
James Peoples #1	5	14	2.8	0	7
Quinton Martin Jr. #25	2	2	1.0	0	1
Rocco Becht #3	7	-1	-0.1	0	9
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	30	65	2.2	1	9

Receiving

PSU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chase Sowell #0	11	151	13.7	1	26
Andrew Rappleyea #87	7	34	4.9	0	10
Brett Eskildsen #4	3	29	9.7	0	12
Benjamin Brahmer #18	4	24	6.0	0	10
Gabe Burkle #84	1	20	20.0	0	20
James Peoples #1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Carson Hansen #21	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	28	267	9.5	1	26

Fumbles

PSU	FUM	LOST	REC
Rocco Becht #3	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

PSU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Tony Rojas #13	12	4	1	2	0
Kooper Ebel #8	7	3	0	0.5	0
Jamison Patton #3	5	4	0	0	0
Audavion Collins #2	4	3	0	0	0
Zion Tracy #7	4	2	0	1.5	0
Marcus Neal Jr. #31	3	2	0	0	0
Josiah Zayas #17	3	2	0	0	1
Keanu Williams #99	3	0	0	0	0
Caleb Bacon #10	2	2	0	1	0
John Klosterman #32	2	1	0	0	0
Cael Brezina #9	2	1	0	0	0
Dallas Vakalahi #98	2	1	0	0	0
Anthony Donkoh #68	1	1	0	0	0
Daryus Dixson #5	1	1	0	0	1
Jahmir Joseph #0	1	1	0	0	1
Siale Taupaki #92	1	0	0	0	0
Xxavier Thomas #12	1	0	0	0	0
Yvan Kemajou #19	1	0	0	0	0
Alexander McPherson #33	1	0	0	0	0
Team	56	28	1	5	3

Interceptions

PSU	INT	YDS
Josiah Zayas #17	1	0
Zion Tracy #7	1	-2
Team	2	-2

Kick returns

PSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Zay Robinson #2	1	17	17.0	17	0
Team	1	17	17.0	17	0

Punt returns

PSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Zay Robinson #2	2	16	8.0	16	0
Team	2	16	8.0	16	0

Kicking

PSU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ryan Barker #94	1/1	100.0	24	1/1	4
Team	1/1	100.0	24	1/1	4

Punting

PSU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Nathan Tiyce #38	5	190	38.0	0	2	45
Team	5	190	38.0	0	2	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PSU	MICH
1st Downs	22	15
3rd down efficiency	4-12	5-12
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-1
Total Yards	332	301
Passing	267	90
Comp/Att	28/44	10/18
Yards per pass	6.1	5.0
Rushing	65	211
Rushing Attempts	30	35
Yards per rush	2.2	6.0
Penalties	5-53	8-63
Turnovers	3	2
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	2	2
Possession	32:02	27:58

Computer pick · Spread

PSU +6.5

54%

PSU 19.66–24.20 MICH

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.