NCAAFFinalLane Stadium

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies

Final · ACC Network

Final

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

2-4 · L1

160 PF · 163 PA

Final

Virginia Tech Hokies

5-2 · W1

260 PF · 148 PA

GT 3%VT 97%

Model: GT 23.56–31.90 VT

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1381054743

Called it

Most typical sim

GT 24 – VT 33

Final

GT 24 – VT 34

Winner: Virginia Tech (72%)
Spread: VT -8.5 covers (50%)
Total: Over 56.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GT vs VT

The model

How this number was built

GT 23.56–31.90 VT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
VT +6.6 vs GT +0.5 · pred margin +8.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.1 vs +2.6 · model VT 30.3–24.7 GT
Home field
+3.0 pts to VT
Record
VT 5-2 · GT 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward VT -8.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
GT	0	3	14	7	24
VT	14	10	7	3	34

How the points were scored

TDQ1 13:370–7
Que'Sean Brown 60 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (John Love Kick)
TDQ1 6:100–14
Ethan Grunkemeyer 20 Yd Run (John Love Kick)
FGQ2 10:433–14
Aidan Birr 31 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 7:493–21
Ja'Ricous Hairston 5 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (John Love Kick)
FGQ2 4:553–24
John Love 39 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 14:1210–24
Trelain Maddox 42 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)
TDQ3 12:0117–24
Dalen Penson 33 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Aidan Birr Kick)
TDQ3 5:4117–31
Jeffrey Overton Jr. 26 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (John Love Kick)
FGQ4 14:0317–34
John Love 24 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 5:2024–34
Jaiven Plummer 6 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Aidan Birr Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

GT	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Alberto Mendoza #15	29/38	335	8.8	2	1	32.9
Team	29/38	335	8.8	2	1	--

Rushing

GT	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Trelain Maddox #1	12	96	8.0	1	42
Chad Alexander #11	3	34	11.3	0	34
Alberto Mendoza #15	6	-37	-6.2	0	1
Team	21	93	4.4	1	42

Receiving

GT	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan Allen #4	10	120	12.0	0	25
Dalen Penson #7	5	86	17.2	1	33
Chris Corbo #17	4	35	8.8	0	18
Kevin Roche Jr. #86	3	29	9.7	0	14
Isaiah Fuhrmann #13	2	27	13.5	0	16
Jaiven Plummer #16	2	22	11.0	1	16
Trelain Maddox #1	3	16	5.3	0	10
Team	29	335	11.6	2	33

Fumbles

GT	FUM	LOST	REC
Alberto Mendoza #15	3	0	0
Rahkeem Smith #3	2	0	0
Trelain Maddox #1	1	1	0
Chad Alexander #11	0	0	1
Team	6	1	1

Defense

GT	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HUR
Cayman Spaulding #1	6	3	1	1.5	0
Taje McCoy #41	6	1	1	1	0
Vincent Carroll-Jackson #99	6	1	0	0.5	0
Tae Harris #27	6	1	0	0	0
Tawfiq Thomas #95	5	0	0.5	0.5	1
E.J. Lightsey #2	4	2	0	0	0
Noah Carter #24	4	1	1	2	0
Kelvin Hill #6	4	0	0	0	0
Zachary Tobe #5	3	2	0	0	0
Melvin Jordan IV #0	3	1	0	0	0
Savion Riley #13	3	0	0	0	1
Andre Fuller Jr. #91	2	2	0	0	0
B Braylon Outlaw #35	2	1	1	1.5	0
Chris Hewitt Jr. #26	2	1	0	0	0
Brayden Manley #11	2	0	0	0	0
J.P. Powell #20	1	1	0	0	0
Trae Stevenson Jr. #23	1	1	0	0	0
Jonas Duclona #14	1	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Mbakwe #3	1	0	0	0	0
Amontrae Bradford #9	1	0	0	0.5	0
Jayden Barr #32	1	0	0	0	0
A Amier Clarke #98	1	0	0	0	0
Christian Speakman #92	1	0	0.5	0.5	0
Team	66	18	5	8	2

Kick returns

GT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chad Alexander #11	1	21	21.0	21
Rahkeem Smith #3	2	20	10.0	11
Team	3	41	13.7	21

Punt returns

GT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jordan Allen #4	1	20	20.0	20
Rahkeem Smith #3	1	-10	-10.0	1
Team	2	10	5.0	20

Kicking

GT	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Aidan Birr #33	1/2	50.0	31	3/3	6
Team	1/2	50.0	31	3/3	6

Punting

GT	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Alex Bacchetta #47	5	203	40.6	0	3	49
Team	5	203	40.6	0	3	49

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GT	VT
1st Downs	21	19
3rd down efficiency	4-11	4-13
4th down efficiency	0-0	2-2
Total Yards	428	409
Passing	335	250
Comp/Att	29/38	15/22
Yards per pass	8.8	11.4
Rushing	93	159
Rushing Attempts	21	40
Yards per rush	4.4	4.0
Penalties	6-53	4-40
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	27:54	32:06

Computer pick · Spread

GT +10

50%

GT 23.55–31.91 VT

Push

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.