NCAAFFinalMississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium

Florida A&M Rattlers at Jackson State Tigers

Final · ESPN+

Final

Florida A&M Rattlers

2-5

Final

Jackson State Tigers

6-1

FAMU 20%JKST 80%

Model: FAMU 20.70–34.49 JKST

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2860872782

Winner called · off by 10

Most typical sim

FAMU 21 – JKST 33

Final

FAMU 17 – JKST 27

Winner: Jackson St (77%)
Spread: FAMU +13.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 54.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)10

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FAMU vs JKST

The model

How this number was built

FAMU 20.70–34.49 JKST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.7 vs -5.2 · model JKST 33.4–23.2 FAMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to JKST
Record
JKST 6-1 · FAMU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward JKST -15.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FAMU	7	3	7	0	17
JKST	7	5	0	15	27

How the points were scored

TDQ1 11:500–7
Caron Tyler 8 Yd Run (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)
TDQ1 7:067–7
Armond Parker 5 Yd Run (Gabriel Caison Kick)
FGQ2 4:2110–7
Gabriel Caison 23 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:3910–10
Andrew Ivaniciuc 31 Yd Field Goal
SFQ2 0:3310–12
Team Safety
TDQ3 12:4617–12
Jamal Hailey 81 Yd Run (Gabriel Caison Kick)
TDQ4 12:2117–20
Jabari Jones 25 Yd pass from Jared Lockhart (Jared Lockhart Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 9:4917–27
Nate Blount IV 2 Yd Run (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

FAMU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	adjQBR
A Armond Parker #8	11/27	163	6.0	3	—
James Hayes #12	0/1	0	0.0	0	—
Team	11/28	163	5.8	3	—

Rushing

FAMU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jamal Hailey #2	12	111	9.3	1	81
Chase Gillespie #7	8	32	4.0	0	9
A Armond Parker #8	10	21	2.1	1	15
Team	30	164	5.5	2	81

Receiving

FAMU	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Lawrence Wright IV #18	2	58	29.0	37
Jamar Taylor #13	4	44	11.0	23
Luke Collins #88	1	26	26.0	26
K Kieren Jackson #3	1	10	10.0	10
Chase Gillespie #7	1	9	9.0	9
Tamez Young #19	1	9	9.0	9
Armand Burris #87	1	7	7.0	7
Team	11	163	14.8	37

Fumbles

FAMU	FUM	LOST	REC
Guiseann Mirtil #17	1	1	0
A Armond Parker #8	1	1	0
Team	1	0	0
Jamal Hailey #2	1	0	0
K Kieren Jackson #3	1	0	0
Ryan Johnson #44	0	0	1
Team	5	2	1

Defense

FAMU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Denzel Johnson #12	11	6	0	1	0
Justin Bostic #13	8	8	0	0	1
Andre Powell Jr. #7	7	5	1	1	0
Ryan Johnson #44	6	5	0	0	0
Caleb McKenzie #3	5	5	0	0	1
Anthony Baxter #31	4	3	0	0	0
O Omari Kinsler #0	4	3	0	0	0
Dion Villiers #23	3	3	0	0	0
R Roderick Ambroise-McFadden #99	3	2	0	2	0
Caden Brown #20	2	2	0	0	0
Daylyn Diston #14	2	2	0	0	3
DJ Jones #95	2	1	0	0	0
R Reginald Camille #90	2	1	0	0	0
Adrien Medine #93	2	1	0	0	0
F Frank Callum #10	2	1	0	0	0
Guiseann Mirtil #17	1	1	0	0	0
Mazio Randall #94	1	1	0	0	0
Darrick McGhee Jr #54	1	1	0	0	0
Adeon Farmer #26	1	1	0	0	0
M Mikeal Gachelin #28	1	1	0	0	1
C Ca'Marion Bush #64	1	1	0	0	0
Antonio Camon #8	1	0	0	0	0
S Semaj Jackson	1	0	0	0	0
Emilio Bacardi #46	1	0	0	0	0
Josiah Watkins #82	1	0	0	0	0
J Johnny Hutton III #27	1	0	0	0	0
Team	74	54	1	4	6

Interceptions

FAMU	INT	YDS	TD
Anthony Baxter #31	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

FAMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
K Kieren Jackson #3	3	38	12.7	31
Jamal Hailey #2	1	27	27.0	27
Team	4	65	16.3	31

Punt returns

FAMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
C Corey Petty #0	1	24	24.0	24
Guiseann Mirtil #17	1	-6	-6.0	0
Team	2	18	9.0	24

Kicking

FAMU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
G Gabriel Caison #44	1/1	100.0	23	2/2	5
Team	1/1	100.0	23	2/2	5

Punting

FAMU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bobby Engstler #38	6	240	40.0	1	2	51
Team	6	240	40.0	1	2	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FAMU	JKST
1st Downs	13	21
3rd down efficiency	5-13	6-19
4th down efficiency	0-0	2-2
Total Yards	327	368
Passing	163	140
Comp/Att	11/28	20/37
Yards per pass	5.8	3.8
Rushing	164	228
Rushing Attempts	30	49
Yards per rush	5.5	4.7
Penalties	5-35	11-105
Turnovers	5	2
Fumbles lost	2	1
Interceptions thrown	3	1
Possession	23:53	36:07

Computer pick · Spread

FAMU +13.5

55%

FAMU 20.70–34.49 JKST

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.