NCAAFFinalRice-Totten Stadium

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Final

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

4-3

Final

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

3-5

BCU 59%MVSU 41%

Model: BCU 27.55–23.82 MVSU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2693096592

Winner called · off by 15

Most typical sim

BCU 29 – MVSU 24

Final

BCU 34 – MVSU 14

Winner: Bethune (64%)
Spread: MVSU +7.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 53.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)15

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BCU vs MVSU

The model

How this number was built

BCU 27.55–23.82 MVSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.2 vs -6.5 · model MVSU 31.8–23.4 BCU
Home field
+3.0 pts to MVSU
Record
MVSU 3-5 · BCU 4-3
Market prior
Blended 82% toward BCU -6.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BCU	0	14	7	13	34
MVSU	7	0	0	7	14

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:010–7
Josh Brown 47 Yd Run (Luka Sari Kick)
TDQ2 8:057–7
Rickie Shaw II 23 Yd pass from Tyler Jefferson (Aiden Lanier Kick)
TDQ2 2:4714–7
Tyler Jefferson 2 Yd Run (Aiden Lanier Kick)
TDQ3 1:3321–7
Tyler Jefferson 12 Yd Run (Aiden Lanier Kick)
TDQ4 13:2028–7
Rickie Shaw II 23 Yd pass from Tyler Jefferson (Aiden Lanier Kick)
TDQ4 10:4428–14
Dayvian Bluitt 35 Yd pass from Josh Brown (Luka Sari Kick)
TDQ4 0:5034–14
Jaden Davis 61 Yd Fumble Recovery (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BCU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Tyler Jefferson #5	7/15	109	7.3	2	0	—
Amari Jones #3	4/8	37	4.6	0	2	—
Team	11/23	146	6.3	2	2	—

Rushing

BCU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rashon Brown #30	22	69	3.1	0	11
Jaylen Johnson #20	13	43	3.3	0	11
Tyler Jefferson #5	8	26	3.3	2	12
G Gerian Traynor #30	4	15	3.8	0	9
Amari Jones #3	2	5	2.5	0	12
Team	49	158	3.2	2	12

Receiving

BCU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rickie Shaw II #6	5	80	16.0	2	23
Cameron Oxendine #81	3	32	10.7	0	17
Josh Evans #9	1	20	20.0	0	20
Myles Morales #15	1	8	8.0	0	8
Malik Stinnett #5	1	6	6.0	0	6
Team	11	146	13.3	2	23

Fumbles

BCU	FUM	REC
Tre Rigby #11	1	0
Jaden Davis #7	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

BCU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Jaden Davis #7	9	6	1	1	0	0	1
Isaiah Washburn #0	6	4	1	2	0	0	0
Stephen Sparrow #1	6	2	1.5	2	0	0	0
Joseph Evans #2	5	2	2	3	1	1	0
Samuel McCall #15	4	2	0	1	0	0	0
Keontae Byas #25	4	2	0	0	3	0	0
Montravius Lloyd #14	3	0	0.5	1	0	0	0
Naim Lassiter #6	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Noel Brown #95	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kobe Stewart #8	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Preston Thompson #9	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Johnson #20	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Timothy Gulley #91	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
Marquis McCants #13	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Anderson #19	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Deanwar Johnson #26	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Gerrard #28	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jamar Dean #44	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Malakhi Boone #32	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Abram Fofana #66	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	50	30	6	11	5	3	1

Interceptions

BCU	INT	YDS	TD
Jaden Davis #7	3	0	0
Team	3	0	0

Kick returns

BCU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Tre Rigby #11	2	84	42.0	58	0
Team	2	84	42.0	58	0

Punt returns

BCU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Tre Rigby #11	3	11	3.7	11	0
Team	3	11	3.7	11	0

Kicking

BCU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Aiden Lanier #47	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4
Team	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4

Punting

BCU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Isaac Gallagher-Cheetham #40	8	346	43.3	0	3	62
Team	8	346	43.3	0	3	62

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BCU	MVSU
1st Downs	23	16
3rd down efficiency	6-14	3-13
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	304	325
Passing	146	196
Comp/Att	11/23	15/34
Yards per pass	6.3	5.8
Rushing	158	129
Rushing Attempts	49	28
Yards per rush	3.2	4.6
Penalties	7-60	15-153
Turnovers	2	4
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	2	3
Possession	35:35	24:25

Computer pick · Spread

MVSU +7.5

55%

BCU 27.55–23.82 MVSU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.