NCAAFFinalGibbs Stadium

VMI Keydets at Wofford Terriers

Final · ESPN+

Final

VMI Keydets

0-7

Final

Wofford Terriers

5-3

VMI 5%WOF 95%

Model: VMI 10.86–37.19 WOF

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 928496470

Winner called · off by 7

Most typical sim

VMI 12 – WOF 36

Final

VMI 14 – WOF 41

Winner: Wofford (93%)
Spread: VMI +28.5 covers (62%)
Total: Over 46.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)7

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VMI vs WOF

The model

How this number was built

VMI 10.86–37.19 WOF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.8 vs -5.8 · model WOF 31.4–23.4 VMI
Home field
+3.0 pts to WOF
Record
WOF 5-3 · VMI 0-7
Market prior
Blended 82% toward WOF -30.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
VMI	14	0	0	0	14
WOF	3	21	10	7	41

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:107–0
Isaiah Grevious 54 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Joyce Kick)
FGQ1 3:447–3
Conner Deviney 29 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 1:5714–3
Traveion Slaughter 61 Yd Run (Jack Joyce Kick)
TDQ2 10:3614–10
Gerald Modest Jr. 12 Yd Run (Conner Deviney Kick)
TDQ2 4:3514–17
Gerald Modest Jr. 5 Yd Run (Conner Deviney Kick)
TDQ2 0:4514–24
Ivory Aikens 56 Yd pass from J.T. Fayard (Conner Deviney Kick)
TDQ3 9:3414–31
Gerald Modest Jr. 65 Yd Run (Conner Deviney Kick)
FGQ3 4:5714–34
Conner Deviney 27 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 11:3714–41
Anjuan Coleman Jr. 43 Yd pass from J.T. Fayard (Conner Deviney Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

VMI	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Ian Reynolds #15	5/9	36	4.0	0	1	—
Team	5/9	36	4.0	0	1	—

Rushing

VMI	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Traveion Slaughter #1	4	75	18.8	1	61
Leo Boehling #9	19	63	3.3	0	10
Zander Lewis #34	1	7	7.0	0	7
Aslin Shipe #25	9	7	0.8	0	5
Trevin Simon #27	2	6	3.0	0	4
Ian Reynolds #15	6	6	1.0	0	3
Adin Watters #31	1	3	3.0	0	3
Cole Varner #4	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Jace Ballard #26	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
JoJo Crump #8	2	-3	-1.5	0	0
Chandler Wilson #11	1	-9	-9.0	0	0
Team	47	152	3.2	1	61

Receiving

VMI	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Aslin Shipe #25	1	13	13.0	13
Cade Cox #3	1	11	11.0	11
Zion Trump #2	1	6	6.0	6
Cole Varner #4	1	3	3.0	3
Traveion Slaughter #1	1	3	3.0	3
Team	5	36	7.2	13

Fumbles

VMI	FUM	REC
Ian Reynolds #15	1	0
Isaiah Grevious #1	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

VMI	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	TD
Ayden Babich #25	7	2	0	0.5	0	0
EJ Wilborne #14	7	2	0	0	0	0
Erick Roman #51	6	2	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Grevious #1	6	1	0	1	0	1
Steven Riveros #8	6	1	0	0.5	0	0
Jacob Moore #92	5	3	2	2.5	0	0
Terry Dorsey #29	5	1	0	0.5	0	0
Camden Clinton #21	5	0	0	0	0	0
Nic Land #0	5	0	0	0	0	0
Robert Powell #11	4	2	0	0	0	0
Ethan Haston #5	4	2	0	0	1	0
Ashton Dixon #6	3	1	0	0	0	0
Quinn Kennedy #46	2	1	0	0	0	0
Elijah Brooks #90	2	0	0	0	0	0
Rod Tasco #4	2	0	0	0	0	0
Omar Miller #3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Keegan Guyton #16	1	1	0	0	0	0
Trevin Simon #27	1	1	0	0	0	0
David Czapp #91	1	1	0	0	0	0
Aslin Shipe #25	1	0	0	0	0	0
Traveion Slaughter #1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Carson Gue #7	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	76	22	2	5	1	1

Kick returns

VMI	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Dylan Poley #44	1	3	3.0	3	0
Team	1	3	3.0	3	0

Kicking

VMI	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jack Joyce #35	0/1	0.0	0	2/2	2
Team	0/1	0.0	0	2/2	2

Punting

VMI	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ben Shrewsbury #99	5	206	41.2	0	0	55
Team	5	206	41.2	0	0	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	VMI	WOF
1st Downs	13	19
3rd down efficiency	4-13	6-10
4th down efficiency	2-3	0-0
Total Yards	188	514
Passing	36	270
Comp/Att	5/9	16/21
Yards per pass	4.0	12.9
Rushing	152	244
Rushing Attempts	47	36
Yards per rush	3.2	6.8
Penalties	5-32	12-85
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	30:45	29:15

Computer pick · Spread

VMI +28.5

61%

VMI 10.86–37.19 WOF

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.