Alcorn State Braves at Prairie View A&M Panthers
Final
Model: ALCN 24.96–31.24 PV
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 808934566
- Winner: Prairie View (61%)
- Spread: ALCN +5.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 56.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ALCN vs PV
The model
How this number was built
ALCN 24.96–31.24 PV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.2 vs -4.8 · model PV 29.7–23.9 ALCN
- Home field+3.0 pts to PV
- RecordPV 3-5 · ALCN 4-4
- Market priorBlended 67% toward PV -6.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALCN | 7 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 38 |
| PV | 21 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 41 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:120–7
Malik Gucake 61 Yd Fumble Recovery (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- TDQ1 6:550–14
Rodny Ojo 21 Yd pass from Tevin Carter (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- TDQ1 4:367–14
Fredrick Robertson 13 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
- TDQ1 3:427–21
Tevin Carter 54 Yd Run (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- TDQ2 12:2414–21
Fredrick Robertson 63 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
- TDQ2 5:4714–28
Ethan John 26 Yd pass from Tevin Carter (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- TDQ2 4:3121–28
Ernest Temple 12 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
- TDQ2 1:2728–28
Damien Jones 13 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
- FGQ2 0:0028–31
Ethan Eddins 31 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 6:5735–31
Fredrick Robertson 16 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
- TDQ4 11:0635–38
Tevin Carter 18 Yd Run (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- FGQ4 7:0138–38
Kenyon Bowyer 25 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 1:5638–41
Ethan Eddins 37 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ALCN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaylon Tolbert #11 | 19/39 | 356 | 9.1 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Team | 19/39 | 356 | 9.1 | 5 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| ALCN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fredrick Robertson #7 | 15 | 105 | 7.0 | 0 | 42 |
Jaylon Tolbert #11 | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 | 28 |
 Ernest Temple #20 | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 5 |
 Armon Wright #10 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 30 | 149 | 5.0 | 0 | 42 |
Receiving
| ALCN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fredrick Robertson #7 | 3 | 92 | 30.7 | 3 | 63 |
N Nolan Chambers #17 | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 | 49 |
Armon Wright #10 | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 | 22 |
 Jamarr Ebron #81 | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 | 32 |
 Damien Jones #8 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 1 | 14 |
 Tyree Kelly #5 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 0 | 32 |
M Malachi Augustus #2 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Jaylen McRoy #30 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
Ernest Temple #20 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 | 12 |
 Jarvis Rush | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Team | 19 | 356 | 18.7 | 5 | 63 |
Fumbles
| ALCN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaylon Tolbert #11 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
M Malachi Augustus #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Ricardo Butler #21 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Defense
| ALCN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Timothy Jasper #1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Mahamadou Diarra #33 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenneth Andrews #98 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Ruffin #25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jakobie Anderson #4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Dillon Crowell #45 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jaylen McRoy #30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ricardo Butler #21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jaeden Spelmon #27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Kately #23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Davis #8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tayvion Haney #2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jakel Houston-Irving #31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kameron Brown #26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kyshawn Kimble #10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Brent Barnes #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gideon Spottsville #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaidon Whidby #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Malachi Augustus #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jordan Daniel #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Landon Carson #40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 83 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| ALCN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Elijah Ruffin #25 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 23 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ALCN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Armon Wright #10 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 14 | 0 |
K Kyshawn Kimble #10 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 16 | 0 |
Kicking
| ALCN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K Kenyon Bowyer #37 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 25 | 5/5 | 8 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 25 | 5/5 | 8 |
Punting
| ALCN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Demetrion Duvall #12 | 2 | 52 | 26.0 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
Jaylon Tolbert #11 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Team | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALCN | PV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 27 | 20 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-12 | 3-10 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 505 | 397 |
| Passing | 356 | 162 |
| Comp/Att | 19/39 | 15/19 |
| Yards per pass | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| Rushing | 149 | 235 |
| Rushing Attempts | 30 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Penalties | 9-63 | 6-58 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 26:16 | 33:44 |
ALCN 24.96–31.24 PV
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
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