NCAAFFinalSimmons Bank Field
Alabama State Hornets at Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Final
Final
Alabama State Hornets
4-3
21
Final
Final
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
3-3
15
ALST 53%UAPB 47%
Model: ALST 29.02–27.92 UAPB
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3275685844
Most typical sim
ALST 31 – UAPB 27
Final
ALST 21 – UAPB 15
- Winner: Alabama St (58%)
- Spread: UAPB +4.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 58.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ALST vs UAPB
The model
How this number was built
ALST 29.02–27.92 UAPB · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.2 vs -1.4 · model UAPB 27.9–29.0 ALST
- Home field+3.0 pts to UAPB
- RecordUAPB 3-3 · ALST 4-3
Computer pick · Spread
UAPB +4.5
53%
ALST 29.00–26.27 UAPB
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.