NCAAFFinalStrawberry Stadium

Lamar Cardinals at SE Louisiana Lions

Final · ESPN+

Final

Lamar Cardinals

5-2

Final

SE Louisiana Lions

4-3

LAM 60%SELA 40%

Model: LAM 27.54–23.59 SELA

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 943994161

Missed · off by 16

Most typical sim

LAM 26 – SELA 23

Final

LAM 31 – SELA 34

Winner: Lamar (58%)
Spread: SELA +4.5 covers (52%)
Total: Over 47.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)16

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAM vs SELA

The model

How this number was built

LAM 27.54–23.59 SELA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.9 vs -3.6 · model SELA 28.4–25.5 LAM
Home field
+3.0 pts to SELA
Record
SELA 4-3 · LAM 5-2
Market prior
Blended 82% toward LAM -5.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LAM	6	7	7	11	31
SELA	7	14	7	6	34

How the points were scored

FGQ1 9:413–0
Andres Sandoval 42 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 2:086–0
Andres Sandoval 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 1:086–7
Kyree Paul 60 Yd Run (Drew Talley Kick)
TDQ2 11:526–14
Kyle Lowe 25 Yd Run (Drew Talley Kick)
TDQ2 7:306–21
Calvin Smith Jr. 2 Yd Run (Drew Talley Kick)
TDQ2 0:4913–21
Jojo Uga 2 Yd Run (Andres Sandoval Kick)
TDQ3 5:5413–28
Kyle Lowe 1 Yd Run (Drew Talley Kick)
TDQ3 2:2920–28
Blake Thomas 26 Yd pass from Aiden McCown (Andres Sandoval Kick)
FGQ4 11:2820–31
Drew Talley 37 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 7:2923–31
Andres Sandoval 36 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 3:1723–34
Drew Talley 39 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 0:5631–34
Blake Thomas 20 Yd pass from Aiden McCown (Blake Thomas Pass to Aiden McCown for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LAM	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Aiden McCown #2	27/46	297	6.5	2	0	—
Team	27/46	297	6.5	2	0	—

Rushing

LAM	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jojo Uga #0	12	51	4.3	1	11
Aiden McCown #2	10	34	3.4	0	10
Parker Jenkins #3	4	32	8.0	0	25
LaDamion McDowell #43	3	10	3.3	0	6
Team	29	127	4.4	1	25

Receiving

LAM	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Blake Thomas #4	7	109	15.6	2	28
Jaydn Girard #10	3	55	18.3	0	22
Kyndon Fuselier #18	4	43	10.8	0	22
Devan Williams #8	5	39	7.8	0	13
Davin Driskell #1	3	21	7.0	0	16
Parker Jenkins #3	3	17	5.7	0	10
Holden Miller #20	1	10	10.0	0	10
LaDamion McDowell #43	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	27	297	11.0	2	28

Fumbles

LAM	FUM	LOST	REC
Kyndon Fuselier #18	2	1	0
Aiden McCown #2	1	0	0
Caleb Holmes #3	0	0	1
Team	3	1	1

Defense

LAM	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
T.J. Nelson #20	8	5	0	0	0
Mason Wuenschel #9	7	3	0	1	0
Andrew Huff #7	5	3	1	2.5	0
Etelridge McKinney #17	5	1	0	0	0
Mar Mar Evans #1	4	3	0	0	1
Bryce McDonald #11	4	3	0	0	0
Kevin Thomas Jr. #8	4	2	0	0	0
Brennen Bailey #2	3	2	0	0	0
Caleb Holmes #3	3	2	0	0	0
Alexandre Dedieu #13	3	1	0	0	0
IyiolaOluwa Solomi #99	2	1	0	0	0
Koda Canady #15	1	1	0	0	1
Albert Simon III #19	1	1	0	0	0
Jacob Hefner #49	1	0	0	0	0
Alex Sumler #22	1	0	0	0	0
Lanar Kelley #0	1	0	0	0	0
C.J. Miller #35	1	0	0	0	0
Jackson Bandy #10	1	0	0	0.5	1
Christian Booker #97	1	0	0	0	0
J Jordan Dowdy #42	1	0	0	0	0
Dawson Washington #18	1	0	0	0	0
Team	58	28	1	4	3

Kick returns

LAM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Caleb Holmes #3	5	114	22.8	33	0
Team	5	114	22.8	33	0

Punt returns

LAM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Kyndon Fuselier #18	2	0	0.0	0	0
Team	2	0	0.0	0	0

Kicking

LAM	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andres Sandoval #66	3/3	100.0	42	2/2	11
Team	3/3	100.0	42	2/2	11

Punting

LAM	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Mason Stallons #33	3	110	36.7	0	0	45
Team	3	110	36.7	0	0	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAM	SELA
1st Downs	25	16
3rd down efficiency	10-18	4-11
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-2
Total Yards	424	305
Passing	297	81
Comp/Att	27/46	8/13
Yards per pass	6.5	6.2
Rushing	127	224
Rushing Attempts	29	39
Yards per rush	4.4	5.7
Penalties	8-65	3-40
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	33:54	26:06

Computer pick · Spread

SELA +4.5

53%

LAM 27.54–23.59 SELA

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.