NCAAFFinalJohn L. Guidry Stadium

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Nicholls Colonels

Final · ESPN+

Final

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

7-0

Final

Nicholls Colonels

2-5

SFA 89%NICH 11%

Model: SFA 35.61–15.51 NICH

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 792995590

Winner called · off by 38

Most typical sim

SFA 34 – NICH 16

Final

SFA 56 – NICH 0

Winner: SF Austin (87%)
Spread: NICH +22.5 covers (61%)
Total: Over 49.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)38

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SFA vs NICH

The model

How this number was built

SFA 35.61–15.51 NICH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.2 vs -1.0 · model NICH 22.2–31.7 SFA
Home field
+3.0 pts to NICH
Record
NICH 2-5 · SFA 7-0
Market prior
Blended 82% toward SFA -22.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SFA	14	21	7	14	56
NICH	0	0	0	0	0

How the points were scored

TDQ1 4:247–0
Preston Alford 3 Yd Run (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ1 3:0614–0
Bugs Mortimer 21 Yd pass from Gavin Rutherford (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ2 9:5821–0
Bugs Mortimer 30 Yd pass from Gavin Rutherford (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ2 8:5728–0
Kylon Harris 34 Yd pass from Gavin Rutherford (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ2 1:2635–0
Bugs Mortimer 13 Yd pass from Gavin Rutherford (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ3 10:3542–0
Preston Alford 11 Yd Run (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ4 9:4949–0
JT Kitna 94 Yd Run (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ4 6:3856–0
Braden Lewis 28 Yd pass from Bryson Broadway (Carlos Alvarado Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SFA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Gavin Rutherford #12	13/20	233	11.7	4	—
Bryson Broadway #13	1/2	28	14.0	1	—
JT Kitna #19	6/10	27	2.7	0	—
Team	20/32	288	9.0	5	—

Rushing

SFA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
JT Kitna #19	4	102	25.5	1	94
S Speedy Jones #20	9	100	11.1	0	30
Preston Alford #28	8	51	6.4	2	11
Jaylen Jenkins #6	9	44	4.9	0	10
C Caleb Crenshaw #26	4	22	5.5	0	13
Braden Lewis #23	2	13	6.5	0	10
Gavin Rutherford #12	2	11	5.5	0	7
Chris Martinez #22	2	11	5.5	0	7
Team	40	354	8.9	3	94

Receiving

SFA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bugs Mortimer #9	6	103	17.2	3	30
Jaylen Jenkins #6	2	62	31.0	0	51
Kylon Harris #4	3	48	16.0	1	34
Braden Lewis #23	1	28	28.0	1	28
Clayton Wayland #14	2	18	9.0	0	10
S Speedy Jones #20	3	10	3.3	0	10
Stetson Sarratt #17	1	9	9.0	0	9
Cameron Kelley #80	1	7	7.0	0	7
S Sean Carter #85	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	20	288	14.4	5	51

Fumbles

SFA	FUM	LOST
Preston Alford #28	1	1
JT Kitna #19	1	1
Team	2	2

Defense

SFA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Eli Ennis #4	6	4	0	0	0	0
J Jacob Penney #15	4	4	0	0	0	0
Chance Sautter #34	3	3	0	1	0	0
J Jakeon Jackson #39	3	3	0	0	0	0
E Emmanuel Harris #40	3	3	0	1	0	0
Kaiden Turner #44	3	2	1	1.5	0	0
Kylan Darville #94	3	2	0	1	0	0
Tim Muhammad #49	2	2	1	1	0	0
J Jaydon Eason #99	2	2	1	1	0	0
Lowote Jurkin #1	2	2	0	0	1	0
Marco Tyson #31	2	2	0	1	0	0
C Cam Brooks #13	2	2	0	0	0	0
A A'Amear Walton #11	2	2	0	0	0	0
G Gary Seidenberger #5	2	2	0	0	0	0
C Cole Fattig #28	2	1	0	0	0	0
Saco Alofipo #10	1	1	0	0	0	0
Travon Sylvester #96	1	1	0	0	0	1
Tyler Hutcherson #14	1	1	0	0	0	0
Makali McKellar #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
Cam Vandible #30	1	1	0	0	0	0
Davonta Morgan Collins #29	1	1	0	0	1	0
D Deuce Williams #38	1	1	0	0	0	0
B Brysen Steele #90	1	1	0	0	0	0
Makai Frisby #12	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
K'Mard Kimble #95	1	0	0	0	0	1
Jaiydyn Johnson #7	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jacoven Julian #42	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	52	44	3	8	2	3

Interceptions

SFA	INT	YDS	TD
C Cam Brooks #13	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

SFA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Stetson Sarratt #17	1	10	10.0	10	0
Team	1	10	10.0	10	0

Punt returns

SFA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bugs Mortimer #9	2	21	10.5	12
Cannon Lemberg #81	1	0	0.0	0
Kylon Harris #4	1	-2	-2.0	0
Team	4	19	4.8	12

Kicking

SFA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Carlos Alvarado #35	0/0	0.0	0	8/8	8
Team	0/0	0.0	0	8/8	8

Punting

SFA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
D Dillon McDougal #21	2	53	26.5	0	0	36
Team	2	53	26.5	0	0	36

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SFA	NICH
1st Downs	30	15
3rd down efficiency	5-12	4-15
4th down efficiency	3-4	0-3
Total Yards	642	227
Passing	288	106
Comp/Att	20/32	13/26
Yards per pass	9.0	4.1
Rushing	354	121
Rushing Attempts	40	36
Yards per rush	8.9	3.4
Penalties	10-90	11-102
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	2	0
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	29:59	30:01

Computer pick · Spread

NICH +21.5

61%

SFA 35.61–15.51 NICH

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.