NCAAFFinalLouis Crews Stadium
Grambling Tigers at Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Final
Final
Grambling Tigers
4-3
31
Final
Final
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
6-2
61
GRAM 28%AAMU 72%
Model: GRAM 23.13–32.66 AAMU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 877030780
Most typical sim
GRAM 27 – AAMU 32
Final
GRAM 31 – AAMU 61
- Winner: Alabama A&M (63%)
- Spread: GRAM +7 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 60.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)33
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GRAM vs AAMU
The model
How this number was built
GRAM 23.13–32.66 AAMU · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.6 vs -5.6 · model AAMU 32.7–23.1 GRAM
- Home field+3.0 pts to AAMU
- RecordAAMU 6-2 · GRAM 4-3
Computer pick · Spread
GRAM +7
53%
GRAM 25.57–33.39 AAMU
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.