NCAAFFinalTorero Stadium

Valparaiso Beacons at San Diego Toreros

Final · ESPN+

Final

Valparaiso Beacons

3-4

Final

San Diego Toreros

3-4

VAL 38%USD 62%

Model: VAL 23.53–28.53 USD

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3485644791

Winner called · off by 21

Most typical sim

VAL 24 – USD 28

Final

VAL 13 – USD 38

Winner: San Diego (62%)
Spread: VAL +5.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 51.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)21

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VAL vs USD

The model

How this number was built

VAL 23.53–28.53 USD · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
USD -0.3 off · VAL +0.0 off, shrunk 55%
Home field
+3.0 pts to USD
Record
USD 3-4 · VAL 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward USD -6 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
VAL	7	0	3	3	13
USD	15	6	0	17	38

How the points were scored

SFQ1 13:000–2
Team Safety
TDQ1 7:180–8
Adam Criter 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
TDQ1 2:217–8
Cedric Benning Iii 8 Yd Run (Luke Scoma Kick)
TDQ1 0:217–15
Omar Mbakwe 2 Yd Run (Emiliano Salazar Kick)
FGQ2 1:397–18
Emiliano Salazar 31 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:007–21
Emiliano Salazar 40 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 7:5510–21
Luke Scoma 36 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 13:4410–28
Adam Criter 3 Yd Run (Emiliano Salazar Kick)
FGQ4 12:3013–28
Luke Scoma 40 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 8:0413–31
Emiliano Salazar 47 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 6:0513–38
Thomas Bailey 52 Yd Interception Return (Emiliano Salazar Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

VAL	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Rowan Keefe #2	15/27	178	6.6	0	1	—
Team	15/27	178	6.6	0	1	—

Rushing

VAL	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rowan Keefe #2	8	21	2.6	0	17
C Cedric Benning Iii #19	8	17	2.1	1	8
A Ashton Allen #24	5	9	1.8	0	6
Chris Gundy #9	1	5	5.0	0	5
I Isaac Tran #16	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	23	55	2.4	1	17

Receiving

VAL	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Devin Yeats #17	4	70	17.5	31
Chris Gundy #9	4	54	13.5	25
Marty O'Keeffe #13	3	32	10.7	15
Kam Fouty-Koonce #18	1	10	10.0	10
D Daniel White #14	1	6	6.0	6
Colin Hayes #11	1	4	4.0	4
C Cedric Benning Iii #19	1	2	2.0	2
Team	15	178	11.9	31

Fumbles

VAL	FUM	LOST
Chris Gundy #9	1	1
Team	1	0
Rowan Keefe #2	1	0
Team	3	1

Defense

VAL	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HUR
Anthony Feltrinelli #4	9	5	0	0	0
Nic Lendino #0	7	6	0	0	0
Alex Goworowski #42	6	6	0	1	0
Emmanuel Olojo #99	6	6	0	1	0
G Garrett Risley #91	6	5	0	1	0
Gabriel Batres #15	5	4	1	1	0
Mark Johnson #3	5	4	0	0	0
Max Samuel #1	5	3	1	1	1
Connor Cervantes #19	4	4	0	1	0
Jason Salman #6	4	4	0	0	0
Micah Markley #41	2	2	0	1	0
Wyatt Little #5	2	0	0	0	0
Bertrand Berry II #10	1	1	0	0	0
Donovan Brown #12	1	1	0	0	0
Kaiser Wilhelm #23	1	1	0	0	0
B Blake Thorp #84	1	1	0	0	0
Easton Hill #36	1	0	0	0	0
S Skyler Slifer #51	1	0	0	0	0
Team	67	53	2	7	1

Kick returns

VAL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chris Gundy #9	2	49	24.5	27
Kaiser Wilhelm #23	2	41	20.5	24
Team	4	90	22.5	27

Punt returns

VAL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Chris Gundy #9	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0

Kicking

VAL	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Luke Scoma #26	2/2	100.0	40	1/1	7
Team	2/2	100.0	40	1/1	7

Punting

VAL	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
W Will Orlando #88	4	214	53.5	0	1	71
Team	4	214	53.5	0	1	71

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	VAL	USD
1st Downs	14	23
3rd down efficiency	4-11	7-13
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	233	395
Passing	178	140
Comp/Att	15/27	14/25
Yards per pass	6.6	5.6
Rushing	55	255
Rushing Attempts	23	49
Yards per rush	2.4	5.2
Penalties	6-45	5-53
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	25:43	34:17

Computer pick · Spread

VAL +5.5

52%

VAL 23.53–28.53 USD

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.