NCAAFFinalSpec Martin Memorial Stadium

Presbyterian Blue Hose at Stetson Hatters

Final · YouTube

Final

Presbyterian Blue Hose

4-3

Final

Stetson Hatters

1-6

PRES 63%STET 37%

Model: PRES 32.72–27.14 STET

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3584883482

Winner called · off by 32

Most typical sim

PRES 33 – STET 25

Final

PRES 47 – STET 43

Winner: Presbyterian (69%)
Spread: STET +10.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 59.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)32

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PRES vs STET

The model

How this number was built

PRES 32.72–27.14 STET · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
STET -0.6 off · PRES +0.0 off, shrunk 55%
Home field
+3.0 pts to STET
Record
STET 1-6 · PRES 4-3
Market prior
Blended 82% toward PRES -7.5 / total 61.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PRES	7	7	10	23	47
STET	0	15	0	28	43

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:487–0
Damion Moate 18 Yd Run (Kade Bailey Kick)
TDQ2 14:1714–0
Damion Moate 1 Yd Run (Kade Bailey Kick)
TDQ2 0:5214–8
Shawne Jones 41 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Anthony Benzija Pass to Gunner Chenier for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ2 0:0014–15
Landon Farco 32 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Trey Hess Kick)
FGQ3 11:0917–15
Kade Bailey 24 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 7:3424–15
Jackson Burleson 23 Yd pass from Landon Sharpe (Kade Bailey Kick)
FGQ4 12:2727–15
Kade Bailey 27 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 10:0827–22
Shawne Jones 13 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Trey Hess Kick)
TDQ4 8:3127–29
Thomas Von Grote 5 Yd Run (Trey Hess Kick)
TDQ4 5:4233–29
Jalen Patrick 1 Yd pass from Landon Sharpe (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 4:2933–36
Troy Flowers 75 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Trey Hess Kick)
TDQ4 2:1840–36
Jackson Burleson 2 Yd Run (Kade Bailey Kick)
TDQ4 0:5140–43
Landon Farco 14 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Trey Hess Kick)
TDQ4 0:1947–43
Jackson Burleson 2 Yd Run (Kade Bailey Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

PRES	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
L Landon Sharpe #0	19/34	292	8.6	2	2	—
Team	19/34	292	8.6	2	2	—

Rushing

PRES	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
J Jackson Burleson #20	26	103	4.0	2	17
D Damion Moate #5	19	90	4.7	2	18
L Landon Sharpe #0	13	49	3.8	0	10
Team	58	242	4.2	4	18

Receiving

PRES	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
A Anton Smith #14	3	72	24.0	0	48
J Jackson Burleson #20	2	68	34.0	1	45
C Caleb Johnson #2	5	46	9.2	0	15
B Brice Johnson #18	3	37	12.3	0	17
J Jackson Thompson #4	1	36	36.0	0	36
D Damion Moate #5	1	9	9.0	0	9
S Sean McNamara #87	1	9	9.0	0	9
D Deverious Abercrombie #9	1	8	8.0	0	8
E Eric Nelson #26	1	6	6.0	0	6
J Jalen Patrick #1	1	1	1.0	1	1
Team	19	292	15.4	2	48

Fumbles

PRES	FUM	LOST	REC
T Tyree Pearson #24	0	0	1
E Elijah Adolphe #48	0	0	1
Team	0	0	2

Defense

PRES	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL
Shyne Johnson #8	8	5	0	1
R Ryan Largin #21	8	5	0	0
J Jalyn Turner #3	6	1	0	0
T Tymaries Durant #24	5	3	1	1
L Levi Hoss #40	4	3	0	1
Nick McGill #10	4	1	0	0
A Andrew Ruppe #5	3	2	0	0
G Gerald Danner #97	3	1	0	1
L Luke Armstrong #47	3	1	0	0
R RJ Pooler #1	2	2	0	0
N Noah Taylor #0	2	2	0	2
C Carson Freese #93	2	1	0	0
B Bryce Stringer #16	2	1	0	0
L Langston Cook #9	2	0	0	0
D Debo Hall #4	1	1	0	0
B Brice Johnson #18	1	1	0	0
A Ameer Elghazaly #20	1	1	0	0
S Spears Martin #26	1	0	0	0
J Jeremiah Johnson #98	1	0	0	0
Team	59	31	1	6

Interceptions

PRES	INT	YDS	TD
N Noah Taylor #0	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

PRES	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
B Brice Johnson #18	2	65	32.5	33
A Anton Smith #14	2	55	27.5	33
Team	4	120	30.0	33

Punt returns

PRES	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
B Brice Johnson #18	2	20	10.0	21	0
Team	2	20	10.0	21	0

Kicking

PRES	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
K Kade Bailey #32	2/2	100.0	27	5/5	11
Team	2/2	100.0	27	5/5	11

Punting

PRES	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
N Noah Perrin #92	4	181	45.3	0	1	55
Team	4	181	45.3	0	1	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PRES	STET
1st Downs	28	19
3rd down efficiency	10-18	2-10
4th down efficiency	1-1	2-2
Total Yards	534	481
Passing	292	349
Comp/Att	19/34	26/32
Yards per pass	8.6	10.9
Rushing	242	132
Rushing Attempts	58	26
Yards per rush	4.2	5.1
Penalties	9-67	10-80
Turnovers	2	3
Fumbles lost	0	2
Interceptions thrown	2	1
Possession	36:34	23:26

Computer pick · Spread

STET +10.5

56%

PRES 32.72–27.14 STET

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.