Western Illinois Leathernecks at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Final · ESPN+
Model: WIU 23.29–29.62 SEMO
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3585030577
- Winner: SE Missouri (63%)
- Spread: WIU +6 covers (50%)
- Total: Under 55.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WIU vs SEMO
The model
How this number was built
WIU 23.29–29.62 SEMO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.1 vs -4.5 · model SEMO 30.4–23.4 WIU
- Home field+3.0 pts to SEMO
- RecordSEMO 4-3 · WIU 3-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward SEMO -6 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIU | 10 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 30 |
| SEMO | 10 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 40 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 12:320–3
Justin Keller 47 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ1 9:243–3
Ronan Culkin 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 6:493–10
Clayton Leonard 50 Yd pass from Braylen Ragland (Justin Keller Kick)
- TDQ1 2:5710–10
Kennedy McGill 2 Yd Run (Ronan Culkin Kick)
- FGQ2 11:1310–13
Justin Keller 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:3517–13
Kennedy McGill 1 Yd Run (Ronan Culkin Kick)
- FGQ2 0:0017–16
Justin Keller 54 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 12:4317–22
Tyrell Reed Jr. 43 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- TDQ3 11:3023–22
Kennedy McGill 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- TDQ3 6:2130–22
Luke Droegemueller 29 Yd Run (Ronan Culkin Kick)
- TDQ4 13:3630–30
Khyair Spain 27 Yd Run (Braylen Ragland Pass to Jobe Bryant for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ4 5:5730–37
Khyair Spain 2 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)
- FGQ4 1:4630–40
Justin Keller 23 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| WIU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kennedy McGill #17 | 20/37 | 264 | 7.1 | 0 | 2 | — |
| Team | 20/37 | 264 | 7.1 | 0 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| WIU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kennedy McGill #17 | 27 | 183 | 6.8 | 3 | 33 |
 Ihson Jackson-Anderson #1 | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 35 |
 Luke Droegemueller #19 | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 | 29 |
 Israel Hiraldo #3 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Josh Robinson #6 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 35 | 269 | 7.7 | 4 | 35 |
Receiving
| WIU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Xavier Coleman #14 | 7 | 95 | 13.6 | 0 | 36 |
 David Hargro #15 | 3 | 89 | 29.7 | 0 | 49 |
 Christian Anaya #13 | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 22 |
Ihson Jackson-Anderson #1 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 7 |
 Aric Johnson #23 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 |
Israel Hiraldo #3 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Jalen Nicolas #21 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
Josh Robinson #6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 20 | 264 | 13.2 | 0 | 49 |
Defense
| WIU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Buckner #11 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Reinicke #10 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 LeBron Morgan #6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Garrett #18 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cidney Johnson #17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antonio Dobbins #4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DonPaul Keith #12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jalen Nicolas #21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Brayden Hapner #20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Devon Anderson #1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jake Kruger #35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jouvenson Romulus #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Israel Hiraldo #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Xavier Coleman #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braylen Taylor #26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kye Weinzierl #44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E Elijah Kongolo #86 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Steven Oberst #98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kevin Washington Jr. #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aa'zoriyon Bonner #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamesly Jean Louis #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 80 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| WIU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ihson Jackson-Anderson #1 | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 30 | 0 |
LeBron Morgan #6 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 96 | 19.2 | 30 | 0 |
Punt returns
| WIU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joel Salien #7 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 |
Kicking
| WIU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ronan Culkin #41 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 24 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 24 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| WIU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luke Droegemueller #19 | 3 | 116 | 38.7 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| Team | 3 | 116 | 38.7 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WIU | SEMO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 26 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 7-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 533 | 432 |
| Passing | 264 | 194 |
| Comp/Att | 20/37 | 16/28 |
| Yards per pass | 7.1 | 6.9 |
| Rushing | 269 | 238 |
| Rushing Attempts | 35 | 46 |
| Yards per rush | 7.7 | 5.2 |
| Penalties | 4-50 | 5-41 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 25:45 | 34:15 |
WIU 23.29–29.62 SEMO
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.