Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at UT Martin Skyhawks
Final · ESPN+
Model: GWEB 27.62–25.58 UTM
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 425823314
- Winner: Gardner-Webb (50%)
- Spread: UTM +1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 49.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)28
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GWEB vs UTM
The model
How this number was built
GWEB 27.62–25.58 UTM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.4 vs -2.2 · model UTM 26.8–30.0 GWEB
- Home field+3.0 pts to UTM
- RecordUTM 3-4 · GWEB 2-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward GWEB -1.5 / total 51.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWEB | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| UTM | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ2 1:510–7
Makhia Sherrard 13 Yd pass from Tate Surber (Brandon Sims Kick)
- FGQ3 6:500–10
Brandon Sims 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 6:346–10
Joshua George 86 Yd Kickoff Return (Tyler Simpson PAT failed)
- TDQ4 5:556–17
Jaydon Peete 2 Yd Run (Brandon Sims Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| GWEB | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jared Doolittle #3 | 8/25 | 74 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | — |
 Lan Farmer #18 | 4/12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 | 2 | — |
| Team | 12/37 | 148 | 4.0 | 0 | 3 | — |
Rushing
| GWEB | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christian Vann #34 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 8 |
Lan Farmer #18 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | 3 |
 Randy Young #10 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Sean Brady #81 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Jared Doolittle #3 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Adrian Cormier #5 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 | 8 |
Receiving
| GWEB | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kory Jones #2 | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 | 21 |
Sean Brady #81 | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 | 25 |
 Montez Green #13 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 |
Randy Young #10 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 |
 Brian Green Jr. #84 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
Christian Vann #34 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Giovanni Adopte #0 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Dylan Manders #41 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Jalile Bost #6 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 12 | 148 | 12.3 | 0 | 25 |
Fumbles
| GWEB | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Taylor Smallwood #16 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| GWEB | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cahari Haynes #24 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tre Yanez #1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Bryson Shelton #39 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Preston Hamilton #93 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Hunter West #26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 Renardo Lewis #99 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Weems #0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Shawn Battle #2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 AJ Mebane #6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jordan Jackson #9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terrill Hopkins #15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Taylor Smallwood #16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sabin McLaughlin #10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ruben Tshilombo #18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Talon Fisher #14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Gilbertson #11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trenton Bell #28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah Gartner #94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jamarion Ravenell #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sean Brady #81 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jalile Bost #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Williams #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Blankenship #85 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Evan Kuehnel #46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylin Murry #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zalen Watkins #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Joshua George #80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 92 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Interceptions
| GWEB | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Talon Fisher #14 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
J Jamarion Ravenell #3 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 36 | 0 |
Kick returns
| GWEB | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joshua George #80 | 3 | 120 | 40.0 | 86 | 1 |
| Team | 3 | 120 | 40.0 | 86 | 1 |
Punt returns
| GWEB | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryce Marcus #8 | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 20 | 0 |
Kicking
| GWEB | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tyler Simpson #91 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0/1 | 0 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0/1 | 0 |
Punting
| GWEB | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Bontekoe #45 | 6 | 262 | 43.7 | 1 | 2 | 50 |
 Aidan Bonde #42 | 2 | 78 | 39.0 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
| Team | 8 | 340 | 42.5 | 1 | 2 | 50 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GWEB | UTM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 7 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 0-12 | 7-19 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 168 | 310 |
| Passing | 148 | 92 |
| Comp/Att | 12/37 | 10/25 |
| Yards per pass | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Rushing | 20 | 218 |
| Rushing Attempts | 15 | 53 |
| Yards per rush | 1.3 | 4.1 |
| Penalties | 5-34 | 6-52 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 18:59 | 41:01 |
GWEB 27.62–25.58 UTM
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.