NCAAFFinalStewart Stadium

Idaho State Bengals at Weber State Wildcats

Final · ESPN+

Final

Idaho State Bengals

4-3

Final

Weber State Wildcats

5-3

IDST 61%WEB 39%

Model: IDST 32.58–28.18 WEB

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 225771814

Missed · off by 15

Most typical sim

IDST 33 – WEB 29

Final

IDST 20 – WEB 27

Winner: Idaho St (60%)
Spread: WEB +6 covers (52%)
Total: Under 63.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)15

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: IDST vs WEB

The model

How this number was built

IDST 32.58–28.18 WEB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.6 vs +0.2 · model WEB 25.4–29.6 IDST
Home field
+3.0 pts to WEB
Record
WEB 5-3 · IDST 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward IDST -4.5 / total 63.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IDST	7	7	6	0	20
WEB	6	0	13	8	27

How the points were scored

TDQ1 4:527–0
Trehsyn Fesili 50 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lindberg Kick)
TDQ1 0:167–6
Robert Young 68 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
TDQ2 3:3714–6
Julian Mason 32 Yd pass from Davis Harsin (Mason Lindberg Kick)
TDQ3 10:3714–12
Seth Rigtrup 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ3 4:5414–19
Noah Kjar 14 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)
TDQ3 1:5620–19
Parker Graham 18 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 1:1020–27
Spencer Ferguson 2 Yd Run (Nate Dahle Pass to Tate Kjar for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

IDST	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
D Davis Harsin #16	14/27	145	5.4	1	0	—
J Jordan Cooke #1	5/9	53	5.9	1	1	—
O Owen Tomich #82	0/1	0	0.0	0	0	—
Team	19/37	198	5.4	2	1	—

Rushing

IDST	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
D Davis Harsin #16	20	83	4.2	13
T Tytan Mason #20	5	27	5.4	7
C Carson Sudbury #6	5	13	2.6	7
O Owen Tomich #82	1	8	8.0	8
J Jordan Cooke #1	3	4	1.3	4
Chedon James #8	1	-2	-2.0	0
Team	1	-5	-5.0	0
C Collin Lewis #97	1	-8	-8.0	0
Team	37	120	3.2	13

Receiving

IDST	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
J Julian Mason #80	5	82	16.4	1	32
P Parker Graham #13	4	41	10.3	1	18
O Owen Tomich #82	4	39	9.8	0	18
Chedon James #8	4	17	4.3	0	6
J Jimmy Trilla #10	1	11	11.0	0	11
C Carson Sudbury #6	1	8	8.0	0	8
Team	19	198	10.4	2	32

Fumbles

IDST	FUM	REC
C Collin Lewis #97	1	0
T TreShawn Shorty #2	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

IDST	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
N Nathan Reynolds #7	10	5	0	0.5	0	0	0
Titan Saxton #5	6	6	0	0	0	0	0
Troy Wilkey #6	5	4	0	0	0	0	0
J Jacob Perez #44	5	2	0	0.5	0	0	0
Gabe Tahir #1	4	4	0	0	0	0	0
J Jackson Daniels #4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0
D Dekker Hagler #3	3	3	0	1	0	0	0
T Trehsyn Fesili #14	3	3	0	0	0	0	1
B Bronson Childs #96	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
T TreShawn Shorty #2	3	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
J Jackson Irwin #18	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
B Bryce McCray #31	2	2	0	1	0	0	0
J Junior Kaufusi #38	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
J Junior Damuni #11	2	1	0	0.5	0	0	0
Sani Tuala #0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
R Ryder Holt #46	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Hessler #99	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N Nate Abbott #12	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
I Isaiah Cook #24	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
K Kai Wheeler #40	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
T Tiwan Jones #23	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
C Charlie Kruger #60	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Z Zion To'oto'o #92	1	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
A Adam Watts #89	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D Devin Rodriguez #9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C Collin Lewis #97	1	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
T Ty Plinski #88	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E Easton Cook #42	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	70	44	2	7	3	1	1

Interceptions

IDST	INT	YDS	TD
T Trehsyn Fesili #14	1	50	1
Team	1	50	1

Kicking

IDST	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
M Mason Lindberg #26	0/1	0.0	0	2/2	2
Team	0/1	0.0	0	2/2	2

Punting

IDST	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
J Jordan Rucker #35	4	197	49.3	1	1	52
S Sam Buck #48	2	60	30.0	0	0	34
Team	6	257	42.8	1	1	52

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IDST	WEB
1st Downs	19	18
3rd down efficiency	4-15	4-14
4th down efficiency	1-4	1-2
Total Yards	318	358
Passing	198	173
Comp/Att	19/37	18/33
Yards per pass	5.4	5.2
Rushing	120	185
Rushing Attempts	37	38
Yards per rush	3.2	4.9
Penalties	1-13	5-68
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	30:38	29:22

Computer pick · Spread

WEB +7

55%

IDST 32.58–28.18 WEB

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.