NCAAFFinalHameline Field at Wagner College Stadium

Long Island University Sharks at Wagner Seahawks

Final · NEC Front Row

Final

Long Island University Sharks

3-5

Final

Wagner Seahawks

1-6

LIU 63%WAG 37%

Model: LIU 25.00–19.42 WAG

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2062186385

Winner called · off by 20

Most typical sim

LIU 24 – WAG 19

Final

LIU 14 – WAG 9

Winner: Long Island (63%)
Spread: WAG +7 covers (52%)
Total: Over 41.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)20

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LIU vs WAG

The model

How this number was built

LIU 25.00–19.42 WAG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.5 vs -5.0 · model WAG 25.5–29.2 LIU
Home field
+3.0 pts to WAG
Record
WAG 1-6 · LIU 3-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LIU -6.5 / total 39.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LIU	0	0	14	0	14
WAG	0	0	9	0	9

How the points were scored

TDQ3 10:237–0
Luca Stanzani 27 Yd Run (Lance Maiberg Kick)
TDQ3 6:077–7
Christopher Harris 9 Yd pass from Benjamin Newman (Johnny DiSalvatore Kick)
SFQ3 3:297–9
Team Safety
TDQ3 1:0814–9
Gianni Marino 4 Yd pass from Sam Slade (Lance Maiberg Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LIU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Luca Stanzani #11	9/17	55	3.2	0	—
Sam Slade #21	1/1	4	4.0	1	—
Team	10/18	59	3.3	1	—

Rushing

LIU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Sam Slade #21	19	121	6.4	0	21
Luca Stanzani #11	17	83	4.9	1	27
J Jesiah Mcknight #37	11	25	2.3	0	6
N Nathan Gray #31	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	1	-4	-4.0	0	0
Team	49	229	4.7	1	27

Receiving

LIU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
G Gianni Marino #86	3	22	7.3	1	14
Joseph Young #5	3	19	6.3	0	15
Jayden Simpson #10	3	11	3.7	0	6
Evan Brooks #8	1	7	7.0	0	7
Team	10	59	5.9	1	15

Fumbles

LIU	FUM	LOST	REC
Jackson Barry #33	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

LIU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Rafael Fasolino #20	8	6	0	0.5	0	1
Felix Matos #32	6	2	0	0	1	0
Trey Watkins #30	5	2	0	0	0	0
M Marquacious Wright #44	5	1	0	0.5	0	1
Rodney Mills #40	4	2	1	2	0	0
Braylon Vincent #3	3	3	0	0	0	0
X Xavier Cannaday #4	3	3	0	0	0	0
Jackson Barry #33	3	1	0	0	0	1
Jeremie McGurn #1	3	1	0	1.5	0	0
Naquan Johnson #51	3	1	0	0	0	1
R Ryan Maxwell #22	2	2	0	0	0	0
Martavius Durden Jr. #7	2	1	1	1	0	1
Noah Livingston #0	1	1	1	1	0	0
G Gianni Marino #86	1	1	0	0	0	0
Sam Slade #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
K Kareem Vessup #64	1	0	0	0	0	0
A Amari James #90	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
J Jerome Hayes Jr. #41	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	53	27	3	7	1	5

Kick returns

LIU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Sam Slade #21	1	21	21.0	21	0
Team	1	21	21.0	21	0

Punt returns

LIU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Felix Matos #32	1	4	4.0	4	0
Team	1	4	4.0	4	0

Kicking

LIU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Lance Maiberg #46	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2
Team	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2

Punting

LIU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
C Callum Brent #47	8	300	37.5	0	3	50
Team	8	300	37.5	0	3	50

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LIU	WAG
1st Downs	18	11
3rd down efficiency	6-16	5-14
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-0
Total Yards	288	226
Passing	59	196
Comp/Att	10/18	17/30
Yards per pass	3.3	6.5
Rushing	229	30
Rushing Attempts	49	22
Yards per rush	4.7	1.4
Penalties	5-40	3-22
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	33:58	26:02

Computer pick · Spread

WAG +7

55%

LIU 25.00–19.42 WAG

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.