NCAAFFinalAlerus Center

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Final · ESPN+

Final

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

5-2

Final

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

6-2

SDST 75%UND 25%

Model: SDST 33.46–22.52 UND

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1756705290

Missed · off by 26

Most typical sim

SDST 34 – UND 23

Final

SDST 10 – UND 21

Winner: S Dakota St (75%)
Spread: UND +14 covers (56%)
Total: Over 56.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)26

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SDST vs UND

The model

How this number was built

SDST 33.46–22.52 UND · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.4 vs -0.9 · model UND 28.1–25.6 SDST
Home field
+3.0 pts to UND
Record
UND 6-2 · SDST 5-2
Market prior
Blended 82% toward SDST -14 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SDST	0	3	7	0	10
UND	7	14	0	0	21

How the points were scored

TDQ1 1:160–7
Cameron Weir 35 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
TDQ2 11:270–14
Charles Langama 49 Yd Run (Kenten Laughman Kick)
TDQ2 3:540–21
Deng Deng 12 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
FGQ2 0:223–21
Tristan Alvano 30 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 13:3510–21
James Basinger 63 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SDST	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	adjQBR
Chase Mason #7	14/33	169	5.1	—
Jack Smith #2	0/1	0	0.0	—
Team	14/34	169	5.0	—

Rushing

SDST	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Basinger #23	11	101	9.2	1	63
Josiah Johnson #22	17	54	3.2	0	10
Chase Mason #7	5	2	0.4	0	6
Team	33	157	4.8	1	63

Receiving

SDST	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jack Smith #2	4	62	15.5	22
Grahm Goering #12	4	47	11.8	18
Coleman Kuntz #82	4	39	9.8	14
Lofton O'Groske #1	1	13	13.0	13
Sammy Dresie #8	1	8	8.0	8
Team	14	169	12.1	22

Fumbles

SDST	FUM	LOST	REC
Reis Kirschenman #8	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

SDST	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Dontay Johnson #3	12	6	0	0.5	0	0
Jes Krcil #18	12	4	0	0	0	0
Cullen McShane #5	10	5	0	0	0	0
Chase Van Tol #28	6	5	0	1	0	0
Michael Farr III #4	4	3	0	0	0	0
Jace Sifore #91	4	1	0	0.5	1	0
Dawson Ripperda #99	3	1	0	0	0	0
Bryce Johnson #33	2	2	0	0	0	0
Reis Kirschenman #8	2	2	0	1	0	0
Blake Leiferman #97	2	1	0	0	0	0
Amaje Parker #2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Goehring #9	1	1	1	1	0	0
Kytan Fyfe #47	1	1	0	0	0	0
Logan Green #51	1	1	0	0	0	0
Carter Sitzman #0	1	1	0	1	0	0
Paul Kim #6	1	1	0	0	0	0
Noah Thompson #27	1	0	0	0	0	0
Joe Ollman #11	1	0	0	0	1	0
John Pica #56	1	0	0	0	0	0
Noah St-Juste #7	0	0	0	0	1	0
Rhett Schaefer #96	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	67	35	1	5	3	1

Kick returns

SDST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Ramon McKinney Jr. #6	3	64	21.3	27	0
Team	3	64	21.3	27	0

Punt returns

SDST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Alex Uchtman #20	3	-4	-1.3	0	0
Team	3	-4	-1.3	0	0

Kicking

SDST	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tristan Alvano #30	1/2	50.0	30	1/1	4
Team	1/2	50.0	30	1/1	4

Punting

SDST	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Max Pelham #41	6	306	51.0	1	2	64
Team	6	306	51.0	1	2	64

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SDST	UND
1st Downs	18	17
3rd down efficiency	4-15	6-12
4th down efficiency	1-3	0-0
Total Yards	326	291
Passing	169	116
Comp/Att	14/34	10/16
Yards per pass	5.0	7.3
Rushing	157	175
Rushing Attempts	33	45
Yards per rush	4.8	3.9
Penalties	6-50	4-35
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	27:46	32:14

Computer pick · Spread

UND +11.5

57%

SDST 33.46–22.52 UND

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.