South Dakota Coyotes at Murray State Racers
Final · ESPN+
Model: SDAK 41.76–17.74 MUR
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1622484338
- Winner: South Dakota (92%)
- Spread: MUR +28.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Under 61.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SDAK vs MUR
The model
How this number was built
SDAK 41.76–17.74 MUR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.0 vs -2.2 · model MUR 25.4–29.7 SDAK
- Home field+3.0 pts to MUR
- RecordMUR 1-6 · SDAK 6-2
- Market priorBlended 82% toward SDAK -28.5 / total 60.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDAK | 0 | 14 | 13 | 21 | 48 |
| MUR | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:360–7
Dimitri Howard 11 Yd pass from Baxter Wright (Tyler Dorn Kick)
- TDQ2 12:487–7
Brayden White 4 Yd pass from Austyn Modrzewski (Bohdie Ing Kick)
- TDQ2 2:1414–7
Chris Herrin 5 Yd pass from Austyn Modrzewski (Bohdie Ing Kick)
- TDQ2 0:3614–14
Malachi Williams 4 Yd pass from Baxter Wright (Tyler Dorn Kick)
- TDQ3 13:0421–14
Tennel Bryant 5 Yd Run (Bohdie Ing Kick)
- TDQ3 0:5927–14
Austyn Modrzewski 1 Yd Run (Bohdie Ing PAT blocked)
- TDQ4 10:1534–14
Brayden White 9 Yd pass from Austyn Modrzewski (Bohdie Ing Kick)
- TDQ4 9:1241–14
Reid Watkins 2 Yd Run (Bohdie Ing Kick)
- TDQ4 5:3341–20
Trey Firestone 20 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- TDQ4 1:1248–20
Courtney Rivers 6 Yd Run (Bohdie Ing Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| SDAK | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Austyn Modrzewski #1 | 17/27 | 153 | 5.7 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Team | 17/27 | 153 | 5.7 | 3 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| SDAK | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carson Fletcher #33 | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 | 12 |
 Reid Watkins #5 | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 | 6 |
 Courtney Rivers #18 | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 | 14 |
Austyn Modrzewski #1 | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 | 21 |
 Jackson Proctor #12 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 11 |
 Julius Ellens #8 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Tennel Bryant #9 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 | 5 |
| Team | 45 | 174 | 3.9 | 4 | 21 |
Receiving
| SDAK | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brayden White #2 | 7 | 78 | 11.1 | 2 | 27 |
 Tysen Boze #6 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
Tennel Bryant #9 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | 23 |
 Chris Herrin #86 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 | 5 |
Carson Fletcher #33 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 9 |
Reid Watkins #5 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 17 | 153 | 9.0 | 3 | 27 |
Fumbles
| SDAK | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Harrison Brun #24 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| SDAK | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gabriel Hardman #3 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kael Kolarik #2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wade Abrams #49 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen Boehm-Peterson #4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Crew Heier #37 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dawson Sechser #14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Harrison Brun #24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Asher Tomaszewski #99 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Lincoln Adams #38 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeff Bowie #93 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Same #45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennel Bryant #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Carrier #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan Hudgens #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Grant #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Araf Evans Jr. #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kameron Hawkins #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Starman #44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Calen Presser #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Laperi #46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cain Wallner #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tim White #9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 AuVon Sager #97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 54 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| SDAK | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brayden White #2 | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 31 | 0 |
Courtney Rivers #18 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 21 | 0 |
 Caden Frey #87 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 31 | 0 |
Punt returns
| SDAK | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brayden White #2 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
Kicking
| SDAK | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Bohdie Ing #19 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/7 | 6 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/7 | 6 |
Punting
| SDAK | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brook Honore Jr. #16 | 3 | 170 | 56.7 | 1 | 2 | 72 |
| Team | 3 | 170 | 56.7 | 1 | 2 | 72 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SDAK | MUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 25 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 10-15 | 6-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Total Yards | 327 | 351 |
| Passing | 153 | 206 |
| Comp/Att | 17/27 | 20/35 |
| Yards per pass | 5.7 | 5.9 |
| Rushing | 174 | 145 |
| Rushing Attempts | 45 | 28 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| Penalties | 8-74 | 11-73 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 37:45 | 22:15 |
SDAK 41.76–17.74 MUR
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.