NCAAFFinalSaluki Stadium

Illinois State Redbirds at Southern Illinois Salukis

Final · ESPNU

Final

Illinois State Redbirds

5-2

Final

Southern Illinois Salukis

3-5

ILST 63%SIU 37%

Model: ILST 29.93–24.40 SIU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1639114862

Winner called · off by 16

Most typical sim

ILST 30 – SIU 25

Final

ILST 35 – SIU 14

Winner: Illinois St (63%)
Spread: SIU +7 covers (53%)
Total: Over 54.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)16

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ILST vs SIU

The model

How this number was built

ILST 29.93–24.40 SIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs -1.1 · model SIU 27.2–26.3 ILST
Home field
+3.0 pts to SIU
Record
SIU 3-5 · ILST 5-2
Market prior
Blended 82% toward ILST -7 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ILST	0	28	7	0	35
SIU	0	0	7	7	14

How the points were scored

TDQ2 13:067–0
Victor Dawson 1 Yd Run (Michael Cosentino Kick)
TDQ2 4:5114–0
Chase Kwiatkowski 5 Yd Run (Michael Cosentino Kick)
TDQ2 1:5321–0
Beckham Pellant 10 Yd Run (Michael Cosentino Kick)
TDQ2 0:4128–0
Dylan Lord 17 Yd pass from Beckham Pellant (Michael Cosentino Kick)
TDQ3 5:2035–0
Luke Mailander 57 Yd pass from Beckham Pellant (Michael Cosentino Kick)
TDQ3 1:1235–7
Kyle Thomas 29 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Weston Schofield Kick)
TDQ4 4:4035–14
Tae Marrero Jr. 45 Yd Punt Return (Weston Schofield Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ILST	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Beckham Pellant #8	16/25	191	7.6	2	—
Chase Kwiatkowski #15	1/1	1	1.0	0	—
Team	17/26	192	7.4	2	—

Rushing

ILST	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Victor Dawson #5	16	82	5.1	1	41
Seth Glatz #2	9	38	4.2	0	19
Anthony Hall #32	3	23	7.7	0	15
Tyler Lofton #27	3	19	6.3	0	11
Chase Kwiatkowski #15	2	9	4.5	1	5
Beckham Pellant #8	4	4	1.0	1	10
Team	37	175	4.7	3	41

Receiving

ILST	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Luke Mailander #84	4	90	22.5	1	57
Stevan Gavric #18	4	50	12.5	0	16
Dylan Lord #4	5	38	7.6	1	17
Seth Glatz #2	1	10	10.0	0	10
Ethan Loss #19	1	5	5.0	0	5
Ian Willis #1	1	1	1.0	0	1
Victor Dawson #5	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	17	192	11.3	2	57

Fumbles

ILST	FUM	LOST	REC
Ben Harman #91	0	0	2
Team	0	0	2

Defense

ILST	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Mason Kaplan #14	13	5	0	0.5	0	1
Solomon Oduma #6	7	6	2	2	0	0
La'Shavion Brown #4	7	2	1	1	1	0
Tye Niekamp #46	6	2	0	0	0	0
Key Crowell #10	5	3	0	0	1	0
Doreon Dubose #8	5	2	0	0	1	0
Jordan Coleman #3	4	2	0	0	0	0
Travis Jones #92	4	1	1	1	0	0
Rylan Crawford #9	3	1	0	1	0	0
Dexter Niekamp #44	3	1	0	0.5	1	1
Rico Clay #16	3	1	0	0	0	0
Anthony Corona #35	3	0	0	0	0	0
Logan Jellison #98	3	0	0	0	0	0
Wyatt Boals #51	3	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Harman #91	2	1	1	1	2	1
Valentino Garcia #76	2	1	0	1	0	0
Jamaricus Thomas #26	2	1	0	0	0	0
Dereon Crowe #0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Mark Haering #47	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kaden Lehew #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Nio Espinoza #22	1	0	0	0	0	0
Drew Drzonek #39	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	80	30	5	8	6	3

Kick returns

ILST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chris Taylor #28	2	31	15.5	22
Ian Willis #1	1	0	0.0	0
Team	3	31	10.3	22

Kicking

ILST	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Michael Cosentino #80	0/0	0.0	0	5/5	5
Team	0/0	0.0	0	5/5	5

Punting

ILST	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Hayden Futch #41	6	260	43.3	0	0	56
Team	6	260	43.3	0	0	56

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ILST	SIU
1st Downs	20	14
3rd down efficiency	5-13	7-17
4th down efficiency	2-2	2-5
Total Yards	367	239
Passing	192	166
Comp/Att	17/26	19/31
Yards per pass	7.4	5.4
Rushing	175	73
Rushing Attempts	37	35
Yards per rush	4.7	2.1
Penalties	3-6	8-55
Turnovers	0	2
Fumbles lost	0	2
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	30:21	29:39

Computer pick · Spread

SIU +7.5

55%

ILST 29.93–24.40 SIU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.