Holy Cross Crusaders at Harvard Crimson
Final · ESPN+
Model: HC 16.85–30.23 HARV
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1504893910
- Winner: Harvard (80%)
- Spread: HC +15.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 49.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: HC vs HARV
The model
How this number was built
HC 16.85–30.23 HARV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseHARV +0.8 off · HC -0.3 off, shrunk 44%
- Home field+3.0 pts to HARV
- RecordHARV 5-0 · HC 2-5
- Market priorBlended 83% toward HARV -15.5 / total 45.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HC | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| HARV | 7 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 30 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:540–7
Kise Flannery 1 Yd Run (Kieran Corr Kick)
- FGQ2 11:430–10
Kieran Corr 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 9:327–10
Joseph Williams 51 Yd pass from (Owen Saraceno Kick)
- FGQ2 0:037–13
Kieran Corr 37 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 2:207–16
Kieran Corr 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 0:007–23
Henry Shoemaker 67 Yd pass from Charlie Smith (Kieran Corr Kick)
- TDQ4 4:377–30
Kise Flannery 10 Yd Run (Kieran Corr Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| HC | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Lynch #16 | 11/22 | 120 | 5.5 | 0 | 2 | — |
 Jake Croce #40 | 1/1 | 51 | 51.0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Team | 12/23 | 171 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| HC | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joseph Williams #0 | 16 | 123 | 7.7 | 0 | 31 |
Jake Croce #40 | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | 7 |
 Drae Tyme #84 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Ty Curran #3 | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
David Lynch #16 | 4 | -10 | -2.5 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 29 | 140 | 4.8 | 0 | 31 |
Receiving
| HC | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joseph Williams #0 | 4 | 87 | 21.8 | 1 | 51 |
Jake Croce #40 | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 | 35 |
 Lincoln Fisher #2 | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 | 22 |
Ty Curran #3 | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 10 |
 SirCharles Gordon #88 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Mason McSweeney #44 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 12 | 171 | 14.3 | 1 | 51 |
Fumbles
| HC | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
David Lynch #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Redfern #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Rushaune Vilane #42 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| HC | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Garrett Baldwin #20 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braden Haas #14 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Cooper Ackerman #55 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Georgs #5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Due #8 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Anthony Redfern #21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Rambert #15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chisom Onwuzurigbo #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carlo Crocetti #6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chase Fountain #27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushaune Vilane #42 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Vin Ferrara #97 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Juju Tackie #10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Julian Jones #31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Nolan #61 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bennett Nunnally #71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gabe Flores #50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amari Gardner #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ron Burton #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Fitzgerald #46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Mills #37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Mateo Brink #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 70 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| HC | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joseph Williams #0 | 2 | 49 | 24.5 | 28 | 0 |
Jake Croce #40 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 17 | 0 |
Anthony Redfern #21 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| HC | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Baldwin #20 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 12 | 0 |
Kicking
| HC | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Owen Saraceno #36 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| HC | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethan Moss #49 | 5 | 162 | 32.4 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
| Team | 5 | 162 | 32.4 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HC | HARV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 13 | 24 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-12 | 7-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 311 | 461 |
| Passing | 171 | 297 |
| Comp/Att | 12/23 | 19/32 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 9.3 |
| Rushing | 140 | 164 |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Penalties | 5-40 | 1-10 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:48 | 32:12 |
HC 16.85–30.23 HARV
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.