NCAAFFinalSchoellkopf Field

Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Cornell Big Red

Final · ESPN+

Final

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

6-1

Final

Cornell Big Red

3-2

LEH 71%COR 29%

Model: LEH 28.54–19.52 COR

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1488954934

Missed · off by 37

Most typical sim

LEH 29 – COR 20

Final

LEH 38 – COR 48

Winner: Lehigh (71%)
Spread: COR +11.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 46.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)37

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LEH vs COR

The model

How this number was built

LEH 28.54–19.52 COR · Low confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
COR +0.0 off · LEH +1.0 off, shrunk 44%
Home field
+3.0 pts to COR
Record
COR 3-2 · LEH 6-1
Market prior
Blended 83% toward LEH -11.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LEH	7	10	7	14	38
COR	14	17	7	10	48

How the points were scored

TDQ1 13:000–7
Jordan Triplett 17 Yd Run (Alan Zhao Kick)
TDQ1 7:050–14
Ja'von Broussard 37 Yd pass from Garrett Bass-Sulpizio (Alan Zhao Kick)
TDQ1 0:517–14
Luke Denny 100 Yd Fumble Return (Connor Poole Kick)
TDQ2 14:067–21
Brendan Lee 1 Yd Run (Alan Zhao Kick)
FGQ2 9:227–24
Alan Zhao 36 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 7:0910–24
Connor Poole 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 1:5610–31
Garrett Bass-Sulpizio 1 Yd Run (Alan Zhao Kick)
TDQ2 0:4617–31
Jamaire Harden 21 Yd pass from Derek Morgan (Connor Poole Kick)
TDQ3 10:5424–31
Anthony Feaster 16 Yd pass from Derek Morgan (Connor Poole Kick)
TDQ3 4:0124–38
Brendan Lee 3 Yd pass from Garrett Bass-Sulpizio (Alan Zhao Kick)
TDQ4 14:5731–38
Luke Yoder 3 Yd Run (Connor Poole Kick)
TDQ4 9:4331–45
Jordan Triplett 3 Yd Run (Alan Zhao Kick)
TDQ4 4:0738–45
Bryce Werner 41 Yd pass from Derek Morgan (Connor Poole Kick)
FGQ4 1:5038–48
Alan Zhao 32 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LEH	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Derek Morgan #10	15/25	204	8.2	3	1	—
Team	15/25	204	8.2	3	1	—

Rushing

LEH	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Luke Yoder #6	19	142	7.5	1	66
Derek Morgan #10	8	37	4.6	0	17
Jamaire Harden #0	1	16	16.0	0	16
Aaron Crossley #5	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	1	-15	-15.0	0	0
Team	30	183	6.1	1	66

Receiving

LEH	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
B Bryce Werner #18	3	62	20.7	1	41
Anthony Feaster #14	3	48	16.0	1	28
Matt D'Avino #11	3	44	14.7	0	30
Jamaire Harden #0	3	29	9.7	1	21
Nick Palumbo #7	2	21	10.5	0	15
Luke Yoder #6	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	15	204	13.6	3	41

Fumbles

LEH	FUM	REC
Team	1	0
Luke Denny #5	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

LEH	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	TD
C Cayden Vassa #24	9	3	0	0	0
William Parton #10	9	2	0.5	0	0
DJ Brown #20	8	4	0	0	0
TJ Hill #8	6	5	0	1	0
Jadin Nelson #54	6	2	1	0	0
Jackson Dowd #37	5	3	0	1	0
Cole Hughes #7	5	3	0	0	0
Preston Davis #99	5	2	0	0	0
Ignatious Williams #0	5	1	0	0	0
Aidan Williams #15	4	0	0.5	0	0
J Josh Lenart #35	4	0	0	0	0
Andrew Sharga #40	3	1	0	0	0
Broc Bender #39	3	1	0	0	0
Luke Denny #5	3	1	0	0	1
M Mick McKee #1	2	1	0	0	0
Lucas Manderbach #9	2	0	0	0	0
Kingsley Acho #90	1	1	1	0	0
Davis Rice #27	1	0	0	0	0
Dayyan O'Neal #16	1	0	0	0	0
Logan Galletta #13	1	0	0	0	0
Luke Reilly #97	1	0	0	0	0
Lorenzo Portella #93	1	0	0	0	0
S Silas Day #11	1	0	0	0	0
Team	86	30	3	2	1

Kick returns

LEH	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Anthony Feaster #14	3	61	20.3	23
Jamaire Harden #0	1	20	20.0	20
Walker Blair #42	1	17	17.0	17
Team	5	98	19.6	23

Kicking

LEH	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Connor Poole #36	1/1	100.0	22	5/5	8
Team	1/1	100.0	22	5/5	8

Punting

LEH	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Connor Poole #36	3	140	46.7	1	1	63
Team	3	140	46.7	1	1	63

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LEH	COR
1st Downs	19	32
3rd down efficiency	5-12	8-12
4th down efficiency	3-3	2-2
Total Yards	387	600
Passing	204	366
Comp/Att	15/25	22/34
Yards per pass	8.2	10.8
Rushing	183	234
Rushing Attempts	30	45
Yards per rush	6.1	5.2
Penalties	2-20	2-25
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	23:13	36:47

Computer pick · Spread

COR +11.5

56%

LEH 28.54–19.52 COR

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.