NCAAFFinal/OTBroadview Stadium

Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls

Final/OT · ESPN+

Final

Massachusetts Minutemen

4-3 · L3

196 PF · 134 PA

Final

Final/OT

Buffalo Bulls

4-3 · W2

150 PF · 179 PA

MASS 10%BUFF 90%

Model: MASS 19.06–24.96 BUFF

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4111169778

Called it

Most typical sim

MASS 20 – BUFF 26

Final

MASS 18 – BUFF 25

Winner: Buffalo (64%)
Spread: MASS +7 covers (50%)push
Total: Over 42.5 (66%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MASS vs BUFF

The model

How this number was built

MASS 19.06–24.96 BUFF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BUFF -12.8 vs MASS -13.6 · pred margin +5.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.3 vs -3.5 · model BUFF 27.6–20.9 MASS
Home field
+3.0 pts to BUFF
Record
BUFF 4-3 · MASS 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BUF -6.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
MASS	7	8	0	3	0	18
BUFF	3	5	7	3	7	25

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:087–0
Logan Inagawa 20 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)
FGQ1 7:267–3
Oliver Hautanen 26 Yd Field Goal
SFQ2 9:067–5
Team Safety
FGQ2 4:407–8
Oliver Hautanen 33 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 1:3215–8
Elijah Faulkner 2 Yd Run (Logan Inagawa Pass to Jabari Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ3 10:4715–15
Clint Walker 2 Yd pass from Jason Wright (Oliver Hautanen Kick)
FGQ4 1:5718–15
Derek Morris 53 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 0:0218–18
Oliver Hautanen 29 Yd Field Goal
TDOT 0:0018–25
Clint Walker 15 Yd pass from Jason Wright (Oliver Hautanen Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

MASS	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Logan Inagawa #16	14/25	168	6.7	0	1	28.3
Team	14/25	168	6.7	0	1	--

Rushing

MASS	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Elijah Faulkner #23	23	84	3.7	1	26
Logan Inagawa #16	19	66	3.5	1	20
Kezion Dia-Johnson #8	2	10	5.0	0	8
Tavian Dashiell #15	1	4	4.0	0	4
Curtis Kimmons IV #14	1	4	4.0	0	4
Justin Williams-Thomas #6	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	47	171	3.6	2	26

Receiving

MASS	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kezion Dia-Johnson #8	5	79	15.8	37
Jabari Lewis #19	3	33	11.0	21
Reece Adkins #83	2	31	15.5	17
Elijah Faulkner #23	2	15	7.5	11
Max Dowling #11	2	10	5.0	5
Team	14	168	12.0	37

Fumbles

MASS	FUM	LOST	REC
Logan Inagawa #16	2	0	0
Drew Alsup #85	1	1	0
TJ Magee #7	0	0	1
Team	3	1	1

Defense

MASS	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Kendall Bournes #3	8	5	0	0	0
Timmy Hinspeter #44	8	1	0.5	0.5	0
Zeraun Daniel #38	7	6	0	0	1
Joshua Iseah #6	7	4	0.5	0.5	0
Tyler Martin #5	6	3	0	0	0
TJ Magee #7	5	4	0	0	3
Tim Passmore Jr. #90	5	2	0	0	0
Aubrey Melvin #10	4	3	0	0	0
Justin Krueger #9	3	3	0	0	0
Khari Bendolph #15	3	3	0	0	0
Joshua Nobles #2	3	2	0	0	0
Romando Johnson #92	3	1	0.5	0.5	0
Zakar Morris #55	3	0	0.5	0.5	0
DD Snyder #1	2	2	0	0	0
Isaiah Reed #0	2	2	0	0	2
Jahmad Harmon #22	2	2	0	0	2
David Timson #36	1	1	0	0	0
Team	72	44	2	2	8

Interceptions

MASS	INT	YDS	TD
TJ Magee #7	1	15	0
Team	1	15	0

Punt returns

MASS	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Drew Alsup #85	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0

Kicking

MASS	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Derek Morris #99	1/3	33.0	53	1/1	4
Team	1/3	33.3	53	1/1	4

Punting

MASS	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Edward Phillipson #43	5	167	33.4	0	3	44
Team	5	167	33.4	0	3	44

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MASS	BUFF
1st Downs	17	19
3rd down efficiency	5-15	8-19
4th down efficiency	1-2	1-1
Total Yards	339	351
Passing	168	134
Comp/Att	14/25	16/35
Yards per pass	6.7	3.8
Rushing	171	217
Rushing Attempts	47	44
Yards per rush	3.6	4.9
Penalties	8-57	4-32
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	31:30	28:30

Computer pick · Total

Over 41.5

59%

MASS 19.05–24.95 BUFF

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.