NCAAFFinalFalcon Stadium

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons

Final · CBSSN

Final

UNLV Rebels

4-3 · L1

169 PF · 166 PA

Final

Air Force Falcons

5-1 · W4

185 PF · 118 PA

UNLV 39%AFA 61%

Model: UNLV 24.21–25.52 AFA

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3585283475

Winner called · off by 24

Most typical sim

UNLV 23 – AFA 25

Final

UNLV 31 – AFA 41

Winner: Air Force (55%)
Spread: AFA -1.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 47.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)24

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UNLV vs AFA

The model

How this number was built

UNLV 24.21–25.52 AFA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
AFA -3.4 vs UNLV -0.7 · pred margin +1.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.7 vs +3.2 · model AFA 27.1–24.7 UNLV
Home field
+3.0 pts to AFA
Record
AFA 5-1 · UNLV 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward AF -1.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UNLV	0	17	7	7	31
AFA	3	10	7	21	41

How the points were scored

FGQ1 1:240–3
Carter Cremascoli 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:527–3
Kayden McGee 60 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)
TDQ2 10:257–10
Evan Medders 24 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
TDQ2 2:3614–10
Jai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)
FGQ2 0:4914–13
Carter Cremascoli 34 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:0017–13
Ethan Schwartz 60 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 7:2817–20
Rocco Conti 6 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
TDQ3 1:4124–20
Kayden McGee 8 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)
TDQ4 14:5424–27
Evan Medders 32 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
TDQ4 9:1124–34
Evan Medders 1 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
TDQ4 3:5324–41
Owen Allen 2 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
TDQ4 0:3831–41
Jackson Arnold 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UNLV	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Jackson Arnold #11	21/33	246	7.5	2	1	92.9
Team	21/33	246	7.5	2	1	--

Rushing

UNLV	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jackson Arnold #11	13	78	6.0	1	23
Jai'Den Thomas #9	17	48	2.8	1	12
Kayden McGee #6	1	4	4.0	0	4
Alex Orji #1	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	32	130	4.1	2	23

Receiving

UNLV	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kayden McGee #6	5	99	19.8	2	60
Troy Stellato #10	4	36	9.0	0	14
Jai'Den Thomas #9	5	32	6.4	0	9
Tavian McNair #5	1	25	25.0	0	25
Taeshaun Lyons #8	1	14	14.0	0	14
Taz Reddicks #2	1	12	12.0	0	12
Keyan Burnett #84	2	12	6.0	0	10
Vincent Carner #81	1	9	9.0	0	9
Darrien Jones #24	1	7	7.0	0	7
Team	21	246	11.7	2	60

Fumbles

UNLV	FUM	LOST	REC
Troy Stellato #10	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

UNLV	TOT	SOLO	TFL
Jake Pope #7	15	6	0
Cam Santee #23	12	2	0.5
Tre Fulton #10	9	1	0
Dee Crayton #3	8	4	0
Kamuela Ka'aihue #8	8	4	0
Mumu Bin-Wahad #1	5	3	1.5
Eliah Logo #90	5	3	0
Elias Rudolph #91	5	0	0
Landen Thomas #9	4	1	0
Kal-El Togafau #44	4	0	0
Denver Harris #2	3	2	0
Mohamed Altayeb #16	3	0	0
Tony-Louis Nkuba #4	2	1	0
Poe Purcell #54	2	0	0
Justin Flowe #36	1	0	0
Mo Abbasher #88	1	0	0
Team	87	27	2

Kicking

UNLV	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ramon Villela #32	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4
Ethan Schwartz #39	1/1	100.0	60	0/0	3
Team	1/1	100.0	60	4/4	7

Punting

UNLV	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Matt Choules #26	1	52	52.0	0	0	52
Team	1	52	52.0	0	0	52

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UNLV	AFA
1st Downs	22	25
3rd down efficiency	9-13	4-9
4th down efficiency	1-2	2-2
Total Yards	376	448
Passing	246	18
Comp/Att	21/33	2/3
Yards per pass	7.5	6.0
Rushing	130	430
Rushing Attempts	32	62
Yards per rush	4.1	6.9
Penalties	3-30	3-30
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	24:47	35:13

Computer pick · Spread

AFA +1.5

53%

UNLV 24.21–25.51 AFA

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.