NCAAFFinalWar Memorial Stadium

Northern Illinois Huskies at Wyoming Cowboys

Final · CW

Final

Northern Illinois Huskies

0-6 · L6

85 PF · 214 PA

Final

Wyoming Cowboys

4-3 · W2

128 PF · 146 PA

NIU 34%WYO 66%

Model: NIU 17.81–24.44 WYO

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3685949189

Winner called · off by 23

Most typical sim

NIU 17 – WYO 24

Final

NIU 23 – WYO 41

Winner: Wyoming (68%)
Spread: NIU +7.5 covers (52%)
Total: Under 41.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)23

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NIU vs WYO

The model

How this number was built

NIU 17.81–24.44 WYO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WYO -17.2 vs NIU -18.4 · pred margin +6.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.9 vs -7.1 · model WYO 24.8–15.1 NIU
Home field
+3.0 pts to WYO
Record
WYO 4-3 · NIU 0-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward WYO -7 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NIU	0	6	11	6	23
WYO	10	10	7	14	41

How the points were scored

FGQ1 9:200–3
Erik Sandvik 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 5:390–10
Tyler Hughes 53 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
FGQ2 11:333–10
JJ Schlenhardt 44 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 9:353–17
Tyler Hughes 24 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
FGQ2 2:416–17
JJ Schlenhardt 22 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:006–20
Erik Sandvik 24 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 12:589–20
JJ Schlenhardt 46 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 10:259–27
Tyler Hughes 6 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ3 3:5817–27
Telly Johnson Jr. 13 Yd Run (George Dimopoulos Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 14:5417–34
Tyler Hughes 11 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ4 6:4817–41
Landon Sims 11 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ4 3:5323–41
La'Don Bryant 34 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NIU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Taron Dickens #5	24/44	216	4.9	1	0	36.1
Team	24/44	216	4.9	1	0	--

Rushing

NIU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Telly Johnson Jr. #45	16	139	8.7	1	28
Elijah Porter #24	4	18	4.5	0	7
Taron Dickens #5	8	11	1.4	0	12
J Jaiduan Cranford #20	1	8	8.0	0	8
Team	29	176	6.1	1	28

Receiving

NIU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DeAree Rogers #1	11	89	8.1	0	15
La'Don Bryant #0	4	66	16.5	1	34
Cam Thompson #7	4	36	9.0	0	22
Afy Ibekwe #6	1	13	13.0	0	13
George Dimopoulos #9	1	9	9.0	0	9
Kenji Lewis #4	1	4	4.0	0	4
Telly Johnson Jr. #45	2	-1	-0.5	0	0
Team	24	216	9.0	1	34

Fumbles

NIU	FUM	LOST	REC
Elijah Porter #24	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Defense

NIU	TOT	SOLO	TFL
Brady Kerperin #25	11	5	0
Yassine Falke #5	8	3	0
Jack Murray #44	7	4	0
Avery Jones #2	7	1	0.5
Kyon Conyers #16	6	3	0
Andruw Ellis #30	5	4	0
Liam Lindo #3	4	3	0
Kole Sneed #90	3	1	0
Dev'ion Reynolds #9	3	1	0.5
Montrel Canion #0	3	0	0
Malik Armstrong #14	2	2	0
Champ Smith III #31	2	2	0
Aaron Warren #12	2	0	0
Elijah Porter #24	1	1	0
Micah Cook #87	1	1	0
Jacob McGhee #92	1	1	1
Fawzy Omotoso #93	1	0	0
Marshall Washington #20	1	0	0
Amari Washington #11	1	0	0
Jordan Bellamy #55	1	0	0
Team	70	32	2

Kicking

NIU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
JJ Schlenhardt #33	3/3	100.0	46	0/0	9
Team	3/3	100.0	46	0/0	9

Punting

NIU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Jake Ference #36	4	202	50.5	0	2	55
Team	4	202	50.5	0	2	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NIU	WYO
1st Downs	21	25
3rd down efficiency	4-14	5-9
4th down efficiency	2-3	0-1
Total Yards	392	510
Passing	216	196
Comp/Att	24/44	16/19
Yards per pass	4.9	10.3
Rushing	176	314
Rushing Attempts	29	41
Yards per rush	6.1	7.7
Penalties	8-90	3-23
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	29:55	30:05

Computer pick · Spread

NIU +7.5

51%

NIU 17.81–24.44 WYO

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.