NCAAFFinalWallace Wade Stadium

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils

Final · ESPN2

Final

North Carolina Tar Heels

4-2 · W2

141 PF · 115 PA

Final

Duke Blue Devils

4-2 · L2

190 PF · 96 PA

UNC 41%DUKE 59%

Model: UNC 21.47–25.33 DUKE

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1414609981

Missed · off by 7

Most typical sim

UNC 22 – DUKE 25

Final

UNC 24 – DUKE 20

Winner: Duke (59%)
Spread: DUKE -3 covers (50%)
Total: Over 46.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)7

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UNC vs DUKE

The model

How this number was built

UNC 21.47–25.33 DUKE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DUKE +8.3 vs UNC +8.6 · pred margin +3.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.5 vs +1.3 · model DUKE 31.2–18.4 UNC
Home field
+3.0 pts to DUKE
Record
DUKE 4-2 · UNC 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DUKE -3 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UNC	10	7	0	7	24
DUKE	0	7	3	10	20

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:033–0
Rece Verhoff 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 7:2110–0
Jordan Shipp 5 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Rece Verhoff Kick)
TDQ2 13:4317–0
Demon June 4 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)
TDQ2 8:3717–7
Andrew Pellicciotta 9 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Strange Kick)
FGQ3 6:5417–10
Gavin Strange 22 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 8:4717–13
Gavin Strange 21 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 4:3917–20
Nate Sheppard 7 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Gavin Strange Kick)
TDQ4 1:5324–20
Jaylen McGill 24 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UNC	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Billy Edwards Jr. #9	15/25	191	7.6	1	0	82.8
Team	15/25	191	7.6	1	0	--

Rushing

UNC	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaylen McGill #27	12	75	6.3	1	24
Demon June #0	13	49	3.8	1	7
Billy Edwards Jr. #9	9	20	2.2	0	12
Benjamin Hall #7	2	7	3.5	0	6
Kaleb Jackson #5	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Adam Mccann-Gibbs #91	1	-16	-16.0	0	0
Team	39	135	3.5	2	24

Receiving

UNC	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan Shipp #1	7	75	10.7	1	16
Jelani Thurman #45	4	52	13.0	0	14
Trech Kekahuna #2	2	42	21.0	0	26
Shamar Easter #84	1	15	15.0	0	15
C.J. Sadler #14	1	7	7.0	0	7
Team	15	191	12.7	1	26

Fumbles

UNC	FUM	LOST
Jordan Shipp #1	1	1
Jaylen McGill #27	1	1
Team	2	2

Defense

UNC	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Peyton Seelmann #10	16	7	0.5	0.5	0	1
Greg Smith III #1	10	5	0	0	2	0
Kenton Dopson III #21	7	2	0	0	0	0
Derek McDonald #15	7	1	0	0	1	0
Leroy Jackson #91	7	1	0	0	0	0
Coleman Bryson #16	4	1	0	0	1	0
Jaylen Harvey #11	4	0	0	0	0	1
Jaiden Patterson #18	3	3	0	0	1	0
Jonathan Agumadu #8	3	1	0	0	1	0
Timir Hickman-Collins #54	3	1	0	0	0	0
Ade Willie #3	2	2	0	0	0	0
Peyton Waters #7	2	2	0	0	0	0
Nicco Maggio #96	2	2	0	1	0	0
Javion Butts #24	2	2	0	0	0	0
Xavier Lewis #90	2	0	0.5	0.5	0	2
Khristian Dunbar-Hawkins #23	1	0	0	0	0	0
Melkart Abou Jaoude #9	1	0	0	0	0	1
Donovan Hoilette Jr. #5	0	0	0	0	0	1
Trey Giddens #97	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	76	30	1	2	6	7

Interceptions

UNC	INT	YDS	TD
Kenton Dopson III #21	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

UNC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jaden Jefferson #24	1	15	15.0	15
Kaleb Jackson #5	1	9	9.0	9
Team	2	24	12.0	15

Punt returns

UNC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Calvin Thomas #12	1	11	11.0	11
Trech Kekahuna #2	1	3	3.0	3
Team	2	14	7.0	11

Kicking

UNC	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Rece Verhoff #90	1/1	100.0	28	3/3	6
Team	1/1	100.0	28	3/3	6

Punting

UNC	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Aeron Burrell #92	3	125	41.7	0	0	43
Team	3	125	41.7	0	0	43

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UNC	DUKE
1st Downs	22	19
3rd down efficiency	4-12	8-18
4th down efficiency	2-3	2-3
Total Yards	326	373
Passing	191	249
Comp/Att	15/25	24/41
Yards per pass	7.6	6.1
Rushing	135	124
Rushing Attempts	39	30
Yards per rush	3.5	4.1
Penalties	6-65	8-67
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	2	0
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	28:37	31:23

Computer pick · Spread

DUKE -3.5

51%

UNC 21.47–25.33 DUKE

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.