NHLFri 8:00 PM CTBall Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche
10/16 - 9:00 PM EDT · ESPN+
Computer pick · Total
Under 6.5
54%
PIT 2.63–3.95 COL
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Data-Driven Pick · E. Karlsson Over 2.5 SOG
+125
Pittsburgh Penguins
3-3-1 · L1
25 PF · 22 PA
2.63
Projected
Colorado Avalanche
4-2-1 · L1
31 PF · 22 PA
3.95
PIT 24%Draw 14%COL 61%
Projected PIT 2.63–3.95 COL · most likely 2–3
DraftKingstap to log
ML
Spread
Total
The model
How this number was built
PIT 2.63–3.95 COL · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseCOL +0.5 off · PIT +0.2 off, shrunk 37%
- Home field+0.2 goals to COL
- RecordCOL 4-2-1 · PIT 3-3-1
- Market priorBlended 81% toward COL -205 / total 6.5
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- N. MacKinnon · Points · 1.5Points · COL-120
- E. Karlsson · Assists · 0.5Assists · PIT+115
- E. Karlsson · Points · 0.5Points · PIT-120
- E. Karlsson · Shots · 2.5Shots · PIT+135