Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks
Final · ESPN+
Shot chart · 6 goals (G)
Model: BOS 3.83–2.62 ANA
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 491356251
- Winner: Bruins (69%)
- Spread: ANA +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 6.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs ANA
The model
How this number was built
BOS 3.83–2.62 ANA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.24 vs +0.49 · adj. shots -0.1 vs -2.9 · back-to-back: ANA, BOS · model ANA 3.2–3.1 BOS
- Home field+0.2 goals to ANA
- RecordANA 4-4 · BOS 7-2
- Market priorBlended 81% toward BOS -112 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 19:220–1Tim Washe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Tristan Luneau (2)
- GOAL1st 19:430–2
Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (1), Cutter Gauthier (3)
GOAL2nd 3:151–2Frederic Brunet Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James Hagens (3), David Pastrnak (7)
- GOAL3rd 3:262–2
David Pastrnak Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (4), Pavel Zacha (2)
- GOAL3rd 8:183–2
Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (3), Morgan Geekie (6)
- GOAL3rd 16:204–2
Matthew Poitras Goal (3) Backhand, assists: James Hagens (4)
BOS 3.83–2.63 ANA
HitData-Driven Pick · D. Pastrnak Over 1.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.