MLBFri 7:00 PM CTProgressive Field

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

10/16 - 8:00 PM EDT · TBS

Computer pick · Total

Over 6.5

58%

TB 4.08–2.95 CLE

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Data-Driven Pick · J. Caminero Under 0.5 singles

-120

Tampa Bay Rays

98-65 · L2

738 PF · 653 PA

4.08

Projected

Cleveland Guardians

86-77 · W1

681 PF · 669 PA

2.95

TB 65%CLE 35%

Projected TB 4.08–2.95 CLE · most likely 4–2

Progressive Field, Cleveland

Cloudy · 59° · 9 mph, Varies

DraftKingstap to log

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Total

The model

How this number was built

TB 4.08–2.95 CLE · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
CLE -0.1 off · TB +0.2 off, shrunk 88%
Home field
+0.1 runs to CLE
Record
CLE 86-77 · TB 98-65
Market prior
Blended 70% toward TB -114 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Probable pitchers

Nick Martinez

4.91 ERA

CLE

Shawn Armstrong

0.00 ERA

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Batting

TB	H-AB	AB	H	RBI	HR	SB	K	AVG
Y. Diaz DH	180-614	614	180	85	22	3	98	.293
J. Aranda 1B	159-580	580	159	92	22	0	163	.274
C. Simpson LF	175-571	571	175	38	0	46	48	.306
J. Caminero 3B	170-616	616	170	101	42	3	129	.276
L. Hicks C	136-479	479	136	82	18	3	55	.284
V. Mesa Jr. RF	61-235	235	61	34	14	9	53	.260
J. DeLuca RF	93-350	350	93	50	11	17	78	.266
R. Palacios 2B	81-345	345	81	57	10	17	68	.235
T. Walls SS	82-369	369	82	36	2	21	105	.222
Team	-----	--	--	--	--	--	--

Pitching

TB	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
N. Martinez SP	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--	-----	3.10	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--	-----		--

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TB	CLE
Batting
R	736	678
H	1405	1291
RBI	700	650
HR	169	162
BB	514	574
K	1145	1271
SB	164	146
2B	230	249
3B	22	16
AB	5444	5410
AVG	.258	.239
OBP	.326	.316
SLG	.402	.380
OPS	.728	.696
SF	42	45
HBP	58	58
CS	54	31
XBH	421	427
PA	6106	6117
P	22987	24066
TB	2186	2058
GIDP	111	98
SH	45	28
IBB	27	14
Pitching
IP	1443.0	1437.2
H	1235	1286
R	650	667
ER	594	602
BB	409	530
K	1322	1530
HR	201	175
P	22561	24014
WHIP	1.14	1.26
ERA	3.70	3.77
TBF	5939	6084
WP	43	57
BK	3	2
BH	52	74
HLD	116	117
SV	58	46
BLSV	19	18
W	98	85
L	64	77
IR	192	261
IRS	62	74
Fielding
E	92	86
DP	230	249
A	1275	1262
PO	4329	4313
PB	6	8
CS	54	31
SBA	164	146

Season leaders

Chandler Simpson
AVG .306
Junior Caminero
HR 42
Junior Caminero
RBI 101
Junior Caminero
mlbrating 630.8

Chase DeLauter
AVG .287
Angel Martinez
HR 18
Brayan Rocchio
RBI 73
Chase DeLauter
mlbrating 465.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

C. Simpson · Hits + runs + RBIs · 1.5
Hits + runs + RBIs · TB
-118
T. Walls · Hits + runs + RBIs · 0.5
Hits + runs + RBIs · TB
-114
C. DeLauter · Singles · 0.5
Singles · CLE
-119
Y. Diaz · Hits + runs + RBIs · 1.5
Hits + runs + RBIs · TB
-118