WNBAFinalChase Center

Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries

Final · NBC

Final

Last shot · Allisha Gray misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot

Atlanta Dream

30-14 · W5

4019 PF · 3717 PA

Final

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · W1

3615 PF · 3305 PA

ATL 41%GS 59%

Model: ATL 77.49–80.00 GS

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:52 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1950998860

Winner called · off by 27

Most typical sim

ATL 78 – GS 81

Final

ATL 64 – GS 68

Winner: Valkyries (59%)
Spread: GS -2.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 154.5 (72%)
Score error (both teams)27

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
G. Williams points	18.5	16	26	under
R. Howard points	15.5	17	12	over
A. Reese assists	2.5	2	0	under
G. Williams assists	3.5	3	2	under
V. Burton rebounds	3.5	3	4	under
J. Canada rebounds	3.5	3	5	under
R. Howard assists	3.5	3	4	under
A. Reese rebounds	11.5	12	12	over
K. Stokes points	3.5	4	9	over
A. Reese points	14.5	14	14	under
J. Canada points	11.5	11	8	under
V. Burton points	10.5	10	5	over

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

ATL 77.49–80.00 GS · High confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
GS +5.9 vs ATL +5.4 · pred margin +2.5
Attack / defense
GS +3.2 off · ATL +11.0 off, shrunk 84%
Home field
+2.2 pts to GS
Record
GS 32-12 · ATL 30-14
Market prior
Blended 59% toward GS -2.5 / total 153.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ATL	22	17	17	8	64
GS	14	28	9	17	68

Scoring plays

TIP SHOT4th Quarter 4:5060–59
Kiah Stokes makes tip shot
SCORE4th Quarter 4:2362–59
Jordin Canada makes 13-foot two point shot
SCORE4th Quarter 3:2262–61
Gabby Williams makes running layup (Tiffany Hayes assists)
FT4th Quarter 3:1263–61
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
FT4th Quarter 3:1264–61
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 2:1564–62
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
FT4th Quarter 2:1564–63
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 1:1864–64
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
FT4th Quarter 1:1864–65
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 23.864–66
Kiah Stokes makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 4.164–67
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
FT4th Quarter 4.164–68
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

ATL	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	OREB	DREB	PF	+/-
N. Hillmon F · #00	30	5	2-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	+7
A. Reese F · #5	35	14	5-11	0-1	4-7	12	0	4	2	1	5	7	5	+2
A. Gray G · #15	33	19	5-19	1-8	8-8	6	2	1	0	0	1	5	0	+2
J. Canada G · #3	38	8	3-9	0-1	2-2	5	7	3	2	0	0	5	3	-11
R. Howard G · #10	38	12	3-14	2-9	4-4	7	4	3	1	2	0	7	5	-3
D. Bonner F · #24	13	2	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	-14
M. Okot C · #11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Borlase G · #20	12	4	2-5	0-2	0-0	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	-3
S. Kone F · #23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
S. Walker-Kimbrough G · #33	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
T. Paopao G · #2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
I. Nivar G · #21	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
M M. Villa G · #0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team		64	21-64	4-25	18-21	35	15	12	5	5	7	28	14

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATL	GS
FG	21-64	25-78
FG%	33	32
3PT	4-25	7-33
3P%	16	21
FT	18-21	11-16
FT%	86	69
REB	35	41
OR	7	12
DR	28	29
AST	15	15
STL	5	7
BLK	5	10
TO	12	8
TTO	0	2
ToTO	12	10
TECH	0	0
TECH	0	0
FLAG	1	0
Points Conceded Off Turnovers	17	8
FBPs	11	6
PIP	30	32
PF	14	13
LL	9	5
LC	7	7
LPCT	79	15

Computer pick · Total

Over 153.5

62%

ATL 77.49–80.00 GS

Miss

Data-Driven Pick · K. Stokes Under 7.5 reb

+107Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.