NCAAFFinalBarker-Lane Stadium

Towson Tigers at Campbell Fighting Camels

Final · FloSports

Final

Towson Tigers

0-8

Final

Campbell Fighting Camels

6-1

TOW 28%CAM 72%

Model: TOW 23.42–32.84 CAM

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3676445741

Winner called · off by 13

Most typical sim

TOW 23 – CAM 34

Final

TOW 20 – CAM 24

Winner: Campbell (75%)
Spread: TOW +12.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 58.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)13

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TOW vs CAM

The model

How this number was built

TOW 23.42–32.84 CAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.0 vs -4.1 · model CAM 27.7–27.4 TOW
Home field
+3.0 pts to CAM
Record
CAM 6-1 · TOW 0-8
Market prior
Blended 82% toward CAM -11.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TOW	7	6	7	0	20
CAM	10	0	14	0	24

How the points were scored

FGQ1 9:200–3
Alex Crabb 21 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 4:067–3
Xavier Pugh 1 Yd Run (Zaydaan Faridi Kick)
TDQ1 1:527–10
De'Von Thomas 13 Yd Run (Alex Crabb Kick)
TDQ2 1:4113–10
CJ Schaeffer 2 Yd pass from Jacob Davis (Zaydaan Faridi PAT failed)
TDQ3 13:5813–17
Jyron Waiters 22 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Alex Crabb Kick)
TDQ3 8:3420–17
Jacob Davis 1 Yd Run (Zaydaan Faridi Kick)
TDQ3 4:5420–24
De'Von Thomas 1 Yd Run (Alex Crabb Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TOW	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Jacob Davis #8	23/39	257	6.6	1	1	—
Aaron Enterline #0	0/1	0	0.0	0	0	—
Team	23/40	257	6.4	1	1	—

Rushing

TOW	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
X Xavier Pugh #6	12	75	6.3	1	36
Jacob Davis #8	6	40	6.7	1	12
Tristen Kenan #7	7	40	5.7	0	12
Kemarrion Battles #3	10	30	3.0	0	18
Team	35	185	5.3	2	36

Receiving

TOW	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cleveland Charlton #2	6	88	14.7	0	21
Peyton Faulkner #11	1	53	53.0	0	53
CJ Schaeffer #80	4	37	9.3	1	22
Kemarrion Battles #3	1	26	26.0	0	26
Aaron Enterline #0	3	22	7.3	0	8
Jarvis Jones #12	2	11	5.5	0	6
X Xavier Pugh #6	3	9	3.0	0	7
Jacob Zollar #14	1	6	6.0	0	6
Tristen Kenan #7	1	5	5.0	0	5
Mason Cunningham #10	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	23	257	11.2	1	53

Fumbles

TOW	FUM	LOST	REC
TJ Sands #4	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

TOW	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Seth Chestnut #15	8	1	0.5	0
Myles Johnson #13	7	4	0	0
Jaydyn Johnson #8	7	1	1	0
Ben Kumpon #0	6	3	0.5	0
TJ Sands #4	4	3	1	0
Marquis Cooper #1	4	2	0	0
Seth Hampton #10	4	1	1	0
Zion Copeland #90	4	0	0	0
Zakaa Brown #2	3	2	0	1
Destin Simmons #11	3	0	0	0
B Bryan Lodge #3	2	2	0	2
Matthieu Longa #18	2	1	0	0
Kyron Grayson #21	2	1	0	0
Shamir Boyd #40	2	0	0	0
Nicholas Miano #50	2	0	0	0
Ashton Siwald #33	1	1	0	0
Chase Wilburn #32	1	1	0	0
Eddie Jackson III #7	1	0	0	0
Trey Adams #19	1	0	0	0
Weston Woodard #22	1	0	0	0
Cody Williams #12	1	0	0	0
Hayden Loveless #97	1	0	0	0
Team	67	23	4	3

Interceptions

TOW	INT	YDS	TD
Myles Johnson #13	1	18	0
Team	1	18	0

Punt returns

TOW	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Mason Cunningham #10	1	1	1.0	1	0
Team	1	1	1.0	1	0

Kicking

TOW	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Zaydaan Faridi #98	0/1	0.0	0	2/3	2
Team	0/1	0.0	0	2/3	2

Punting

TOW	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Max Young #92	2	84	42.0	1	0	44
Team	2	84	42.0	1	0	44

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOW	CAM
1st Downs	26	21
3rd down efficiency	5-11	2-8
4th down efficiency	0-3	0-0
Total Yards	442	337
Passing	257	224
Comp/Att	23/40	20/30
Yards per pass	6.4	7.5
Rushing	185	113
Rushing Attempts	35	31
Yards per rush	5.3	3.6
Penalties	4-55	6-63
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	32:55	27:05

Computer pick · Spread

TOW +12.5

54%

TOW 23.42–32.84 CAM

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.