NCAAFFinalKenneth P. LaValle Stadium

UAlbany Great Danes at Stony Brook Seawolves

Final · SNY

Final

UAlbany Great Danes

4-3

Final

Stony Brook Seawolves

4-3

ALB 40%STBK 60%

Model: ALB 22.18–26.24 STBK

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3659668122

Missed · off by 30

Most typical sim

ALB 22 – STBK 27

Final

ALB 48 – STBK 31

Winner: Stony Brook (62%)
Spread: ALB +6 covers (50%)
Total: Over 46.5 (61%)
Score error (both teams)30

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ALB vs STBK

The model

How this number was built

ALB 22.18–26.24 STBK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.3 vs -1.2 · model STBK 26.2–26.2 ALB
Home field
+3.0 pts to STBK
Record
STBK 4-3 · ALB 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward STBK -6 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ALB	3	17	14	14	48
STBK	7	10	0	14	31

How the points were scored

TDQ1 11:000–7
CJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Michael Mannino Kick)
FGQ1 6:473–7
Brayden Heitmeyer 30 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:5610–7
BJ Norman 18 Yd pass from Kai Colon (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)
FGQ2 12:2310–10
Michael Mannino 23 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 6:3713–10
Brayden Heitmeyer 31 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 1:5520–10
BJ Norman 5 Yd pass from Kai Colon (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)
TDQ2 0:1920–17
Seth Sweitzer 13 Yd pass from Quinn Boyd (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ3 10:3627–17
Rahshan La Mons 1 Yd Run (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)
TDQ3 3:2534–17
Jordan Rae 14 Yd pass from Kai Colon (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)
TDQ4 14:5534–24
Jeremiah Coney 4 Yd Run (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ4 7:3741–24
BJ Norman 9 Yd pass from Kai Colon (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)
TDQ4 4:1441–31
Seth Sweitzer 35 Yd pass from Quinn Boyd (Michael Mannino Kick)
TDQ4 1:5648–31
Rahshan La Mons 21 Yd Run (Brayden Heitmeyer Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ALB	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Kai Colon #12	14/21	234	11.1	4	—
Aidan Semo #9	2/3	34	11.3	0	—
Team	16/24	268	11.2	4	—

Rushing

ALB	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rahshan La Mons #2	18	134	7.4	2	50
Joey Koch #22	10	48	4.8	0	13
Kai Colon #12	9	31	3.4	0	10
BJ Norman #5	1	4	4.0	0	4
Aidan Semo #9	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	4	-4	-1.0	0	0
Team	43	215	5.0	2	50

Receiving

ALB	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
BJ Norman #5	7	101	14.4	3	47
Jordan Rae #1	5	74	14.8	1	23
Luke McAuliffe #16	1	50	50.0	0	50
Joey Koch #22	2	34	17.0	0	28
Rahshan La Mons #2	1	9	9.0	0	9
Team	16	268	16.8	4	50

Fumbles

ALB	FUM	LOST	REC
Dorian Royal #95	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

ALB	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Dillon Dunathan #41	13	6	1.5	1.5	2	1
Victor Holt #12	11	3	0.5	1	1	0
Jeremiah Pruitt #1	6	2	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Boyd #55	5	2	0	1.5	0	0
Donny Jones #4	4	4	0	0	1	0
Jamari Young #0	4	3	0	0	0	0
Dominic Jones #49	4	3	0	1	0	0
Shawan Lewis #11	3	2	0	1	1	0
Dana Johnson Jr. #7	3	1	0	0	0	0
Sam Boyer #17	2	2	0	0	0	0
Drew Buckley #9	2	2	0	0	1	0
Jaydon Williams #14	2	2	0	0	0	0
Christian Santiago #97	2	1	0	0	0	0
Sekou Roland #13	1	1	0	0	1	0
Nate Romano #34	1	1	0	0	0	0
Keon Powell #20	1	1	0	0	0	0
Cole Sisson #96	1	0	0	0	1	0
Romero Lavalais Jr. #29	1	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Rose Jr #2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	66	36	2	6	9	1

Interceptions

ALB	INT	YDS	TD
Victor Holt #12	2	2	0
Team	2	2	0

Kick returns

ALB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Tavahri Groves #7	3	34	11.3	21	0
Team	3	34	11.3	21	0

Kicking

ALB	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brayden Heitmeyer #47	2/2	100.0	31	6/6	12
Team	2/2	100.0	31	6/6	12

Punting

ALB	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Gavin Myers #38	3	126	42.0	0	0	51
Team	3	126	42.0	0	0	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ALB	STBK
1st Downs	23	23
3rd down efficiency	7-13	6-14
4th down efficiency	0-0	1-3
Total Yards	483	492
Passing	268	412
Comp/Att	16/24	32/52
Yards per pass	11.2	7.9
Rushing	215	80
Rushing Attempts	43	24
Yards per rush	5.0	3.3
Penalties	4-30	7-76
Turnovers	0	3
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	33:13	26:47

Computer pick · Total

Over 46.5

55%

ALB 22.18–26.24 STBK

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.