Monmouth Hawks at New Hampshire Wildcats
Final · FloSports
Model: MONM 30.35–25.63 UNH
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3642890503
- Winner: Monmouth (62%)
- Spread: UNH +7 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 57.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MONM vs UNH
The model
How this number was built
MONM 30.35–25.63 UNH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.4 vs -2.3 · model UNH 28.5–28.5 MONM
- Home field+3.0 pts to UNH
- RecordUNH 2-6 · MONM 5-2
- Market priorBlended 68% toward MONM -7 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONM | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| UNH | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:177–0
Nazir Treadwell 2 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ1 7:2014–0
Kenny Smith Jr. 6 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ1 1:2321–0
Tra Neal 35 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ2 0:2528–0
Shane Garrett 3 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ3 12:0728–7
Myles Thomason 11 Yd Run (Lucas Glassburn Kick)
- TDQ3 8:0835–7
Kenny Smith Jr. 27 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ4 4:4535–14
Joquez Smith 3 Yd Run (Lucas Glassburn Kick)
- TDQ4 2:2242–14
Elijah Jennings 15 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ4 1:1642–21
Ty Carlson 41 Yd pass from Tommy McLeish (Lucas Glassburn Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MONM | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Frankie Weaver #13 | 16/25 | 195 | 7.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Team | 16/25 | 195 | 7.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| MONM | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kenny Smith Jr. #28 | 27 | 175 | 6.5 | 2 | 39 |
 Elijah Jennings #3 | 28 | 126 | 4.5 | 1 | 15 |
 Nazir Treadwell #28 | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 | 7 |
Frankie Weaver #13 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 62 | 326 | 5.3 | 4 | 39 |
Receiving
| MONM | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tra Neal #7 | 5 | 82 | 16.4 | 1 | 35 |
 Gavin Nelson #0 | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 | 25 |
Elijah Jennings #3 | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 | 25 |
Kenny Smith Jr. #28 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Shane Garrett #84 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 | 7 |
 Marcus Middleton #88 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Christian Harrison #14 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 16 | 195 | 12.2 | 2 | 35 |
Fumbles
| MONM | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 JJ Lewis #8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| MONM | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Russo #1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mounir Keshen #52 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
JJ Lewis #8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jackson #29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Spencer Kishbaugh #27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donovan Fey #26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Sasso #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendan Bigos #90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jaeden Jones #2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hunter Watson #4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jake Davis #43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Rooks #92 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryan Alexander #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Omar Ibrahim #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zac Ricci #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Avery Barnes #50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaiden McLendon Parker #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amori McNeil #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mir Haskett #23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hasson Manning Jr #20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 37 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MONM | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaeden Jones #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MONM | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trey McLeer #17 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MONM | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elijah Jennings #3 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kicking
| MONM | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sky Sholder #32 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/6 | 6 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/6 | 6 |
Punting
| MONM | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Schabel #9 | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Team | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MONM | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 29 | 14 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-17 | 2-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 521 | 295 |
| Passing | 195 | 207 |
| Comp/Att | 16/25 | 16/30 |
| Yards per pass | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Rushing | 326 | 88 |
| Rushing Attempts | 62 | 22 |
| Yards per rush | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Penalties | 4-28 | 4-25 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 38:29 | 21:31 |
MONM 30.35–25.63 UNH
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.