NCAAFFinalNeyland Stadium

#6 Alabama Crimson Tide at #14 Tennessee Volunteers

Final · ABC

Final

#6Alabama Crimson Tide

5-2 · L2

275 PF · 150 PA

Final

#14Tennessee Volunteers

6-1 · W3

234 PF · 103 PA

ALA 66%TENN 34%

Model: ALA 28.98–22.22 TENN

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2367689459

Missed · off by 22

Most typical sim

ALA 29 – TENN 23

Final

ALA 10 – TENN 26

Winner: Alabama (64%)
Spread: TENN +7.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 50.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)22

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ALA vs TENN

The model

How this number was built

ALA 28.98–22.22 TENN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TENN +17.1 vs ALA +26.6 · pred margin -6.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.2 vs +12.9 · model TENN 27.6–30.0 ALA
Home field
+3.0 pts to TENN
Record
TENN 6-1 · ALA 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward ALA -7.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ALA	0	10	0	0	10
TENN	9	3	7	7	26

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:050–3
Cooper Ranvier 29 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 8:590–6
Cooper Ranvier 33 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 4:320–9
Cooper Ranvier 41 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 10:137–9
Keelon Russell 19 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)
FGQ2 5:197–12
Cooper Ranvier 34 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:0510–12
Conor Talty 42 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 5:0510–19
DeSean Bishop 5 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)
TDQ4 3:1710–26
DeSean Bishop 5 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ALA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Keelon Russell #12	19/29	147	5.1	0	2	66.3
Team	19/29	147	5.1	0	2	--

Rushing

ALA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Daniel Hill #4	7	34	4.9	0	17
Trae'shawn Brown #17	6	12	2.0	0	6
Keelon Russell #12	11	6	0.5	1	19
Lotzeir Brooks #3	1	1	1.0	0	1
EJ Crowell #13	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	26	54	2.1	1	19

Receiving

ALA	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Rico Scott #7	4	54	13.5	20
Marshall Pritchett #9	6	39	6.5	14
Lotzeir Brooks #3	3	26	8.7	11
Kaleb Edwards #81	2	8	4.0	6
Derek Meadows #30	2	8	4.0	5
Daniel Hill #4	1	7	7.0	7
Danny Lewis Jr. #87	1	5	5.0	5
Team	19	147	7.7	20

Fumbles

ALA	FUM	LOST	REC
Daniel Hill #4	1	1	0
Keelon Russell #12	1	1	0
Luke Metz #4	0	0	1
Team	2	2	1

Defense

ALA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Caleb Woodson #7	11	6	0	0	0	0
Bray Hubbard #18	10	5	0	0	1	0
Luke Metz #4	7	7	0	0	0	2
Yhonzae Pierre #0	6	2	1	1	1	2
QB Reese #36	5	1	0	0	0	0
Devan Thompkins #1	4	2	0	0	0	0
Keon Sabb #3	3	3	0	0	0	0
Dijon Lee Jr. #5	3	3	0	1	0	0
Carmelo O'Neal #28	3	2	0	0	0	0
Kedrick Bingley-Jones #22	3	0	0	0	0	0
London Simmons #90	3	0	0	0	0	0
Zabien Brown #2	2	2	0	0	0	0
Red Morgan #6	2	2	0	0	0	0
Jah-Marien Latham #20	2	1	0	0	0	0
Noah Rogers #5	1	1	0	0	0	0
Edric Hill #94	1	0	0	0	0	1
Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chuck McDonald III #19	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ivan Taylor #13	1	0	0	0	0	0
Marshall Pritchett #9	1	0	0	0	0	0
Fatutoa Henry #14	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	71	37	1	2	2	5

Interceptions

ALA	INT	YDS	TD
Ivan Taylor #13	1	14	0
Team	1	14	0

Kick returns

ALA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Dijon Lee Jr. #5	1	22	22.0	22	0
Team	1	22	22.0	22	0

Punt returns

ALA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Rico Scott #7	1	18	18.0	18	0
Team	1	18	18.0	18	0

Kicking

ALA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Conor Talty #31	1/1	100.0	42	1/1	4
Team	1/1	100.0	42	1/1	4

Punting

ALA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Alex Asparuhov #32	6	260	43.3	0	1	53
Team	6	260	43.3	0	1	53

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ALA	TENN
1st Downs	12	20
3rd down efficiency	2-13	6-15
4th down efficiency	1-3	1-1
Total Yards	201	347
Passing	147	197
Comp/Att	19/29	21/31
Yards per pass	5.1	6.4
Rushing	54	150
Rushing Attempts	26	41
Yards per rush	2.1	3.7
Penalties	10-68	8-65
Turnovers	4	2
Fumbles lost	2	1
Interceptions thrown	2	1
Possession	24:16	35:44

Computer pick · Spread

TENN +8.5

53%

ALA 28.98–22.22 TENN

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.